NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	108		Excitement	11.4 [17]		MVP	Ben Gordon (DET): +37.6%
Detroit Pistons	111		Comeback	27.5 [42]		LVP	Trevor Ariza (NOH): -51.2%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David West	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.12,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.22,0.05,0.29	0.11	0.19	0.01	21	63%	0.44	3	-0.15	9	89%	0.13
Chris Paul	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.13	0.15	-0.00	16	68%	0.30	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.05
Willie Green	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17	0.05	0.12	0.00	7	61%	0.17	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Emeka Okafor	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	9	62%	0.14	2	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
DJ Mbenga	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
David Andersen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	0.01	6	50%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	5	25%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Trevor Ariza	-0.51	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.51	-0.17	-0.37	-0.03	11	32%	-0.04	5	-0.48	6	83%	0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.27,0.27,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.38	0.38	0.03	0.33	-0.01	21	54%	0.58	4	-0.21	4	75%	0.01
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.35	0.35	0.09	0.27	0.00	10	87%	0.66	5	-0.30	4	75%	-0.09
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.17	0.06	0.01	16	76%	0.32	2	-0.09	5	60%	-0.04
DaJuan Summers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.00	4	80%	0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.26,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.08	-0.16	-0.00	17	42%	-0.10	3	-0.13	6	67%	-0.13

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.8	2.6	30.0	16.8	24.2	2.8	41.0	1.8	18.1	162.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	1.9	16.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +114.7%

NOH -55.7%

NOH -26.1%

DET +3.4%

DET +13.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DET	NBA	NOH	DET	NBA
this game	16.0	15.7	15.5	108.0	109.9	105.7
season	16.2	16.7		104.6	106.4
opponent	15.2	15.9		110.1	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
NOH	16.0	15.2	15.2	19.7	11.4	16.0
DET	14.6	15.5	16.8	14.6	18.6	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Emeka Okafor	56	59	0.37	-0.87	1.24	0.10	9	-12	21	16.2	15.7	0.54	15.8	15.5	0.35
Chris Paul	64	63	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.00	3	-6	9	16.1	15.7	0.41	15.8	15.4	0.42
Jason Smith	44	43	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.27	-7	4	-11	17.3	14.9	2.34	16.0	15.4	0.55
DJ Mbenga	7	8	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.03	3	-6	9	11.6	16.3	-4.72	16.0	15.7	0.34
Quincy Pondexter	8	7	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.04	-2	-1	-1	17.4	15.8	1.54	13.4	15.9	-2.42
Trevor Ariza	79	79	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.40	6	-9	15	15.4	17.9	-2.46	16.2	13.8	2.44
Marcus Thornton	24	25	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.01	-8	5	-13	17.5	15.5	2.03	14.4	16.1	-1.76
David Andersen	3	4	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.06	-7	4	-11	28.3	15.6	12.76	11.7	15.8	-4.10
Willie Green	40	40	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.20	-4	1	-5	14.1	17.2	-3.14	15.3	15.9	-0.63
David West	81	81	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.38	2	-5	7	15.7	17.3	-1.61	16.0	14.5	1.41
Jarrett Jack	31	31	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.46	-4	1	-5	16.7	15.6	1.09	14.5	16.2	-1.68
Marco Belinelli	53	55	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.54	-3	0	-3	16.5	15.4	1.13	15.5	16.0	-0.50

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	77	77	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.41	11	-8	19	15.9	14.9	1.06	15.8	16.6	-0.79
Tayshaun Prince	87	87	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.40	8	-5	13	15.5	16.6	-1.03	16.7	10.7	6.05
Ben Gordon	85	84	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.42	6	-3	9	15.4	17.2	-1.79	15.3	19.2	-3.92
Will Bynum	70	71	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	-2	7	15.9	15.1	0.85	15.7	16.6	-0.88
Jason Maxiell	17	18	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.35	1	2	-1	18.0	15.2	2.79	11.9	16.8	-4.90
Ben Wallace	36	35	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	-1	5	15.9	15.6	0.36	16.3	15.8	0.46
DaJuan Summers	16	15	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.01	2	1	1	17.6	15.3	2.23	17.3	15.7	1.54
Chris Wilcox	27	26	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.01	-8	11	-19	14.8	16.0	-1.24	15.3	16.2	-0.88
Tracy McGrady	37	36	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	-0.01	-9	12	-21	15.3	15.9	-0.61	16.3	15.7	0.58
Greg Monroe	32	30	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	0.04	-11	14	-25	15.2	15.9	-0.77	15.4	16.2	-0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.22,0.29,0.4,0.45,0.33,0.29,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.21,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.46,0.25,0.22,0.31,0.26,0.54,0.54,0.79,0.67,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 109, DET 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.46,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.54,0.75,0.72,0.97,0.99,1	90.0%
SAS 96, LAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.61,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.47,0.47,0.24,0.36,0.32,0.43,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.91,1	89.9%
DAL 102, HOU 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.21,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.11,0.19,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.52,0.63,0.41,0.2,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.27,0.46,0.68,0.84,0.84,0.98,1	89.9%