NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	111		Excitement	7.6 [318]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +32.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	103		Comeback	7.2 [314]		LVP	Kevin Love (MIN): -16.6%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.33	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0,0,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.33,0.33	0.05	0.29	0.01	23	58%	0.45	5	-0.13	6	83%	0.01
Nick Collison	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.06	0.00	3	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	0.01	0.03	6	81%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Serge Ibaka	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	71%	0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	20	54%	0.14	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.04
Nenad Krstic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	62%	0.04	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
Eric Maynor	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	7	44%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
James Harden	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	4	55%	-0.03	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.06	-0.02	6	50%	0.07	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	11	48%	0.05	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.03
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	10	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.09,-0.09,0.08,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	27	43%	0.00	1	-0.00	7	43%	-0.13
Kosta Koufos	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.06	0.02	6	67%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.07	0.00	6	54%	-0.00	1	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.10	0.01	22	43%	-0.11	3	-0.06	7	86%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.5	29.4	15.7	25.2	2.7	40.3	142.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +67.6%

OKC +18.6%

MIN -17.1%

MIN -14.7%

MIN -4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIN	NBA	OKC	MIN	NBA
this game	14.1	15.3	15.5	113.3	105.1	105.7
season	15.0	14.3		108.8	102.7
opponent	15.1	15.6		109.5	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.0	15.3	13.8	14.6	14.1
MIN	14.7	16.8	16.2	13.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	46	47	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.35	13	-5	18	14.8	13.5	1.35	14.4	16.1	-1.72
Serge Ibaka	70	71	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.28	13	-5	18	14.5	13.2	1.34	15.5	14.7	0.76
James Harden	52	52	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.36	5	3	2	14.3	13.9	0.41	13.6	17.1	-3.49
Kevin Durant	78	80	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.44	-1	9	-10	14.7	12.1	2.55	15.6	13.6	2.01
Russell Westbrook	68	70	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.30	-1	9	-10	13.6	15.2	-1.59	15.2	15.4	-0.24
Eric Maynor	32	29	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.10	11	-3	14	14.4	14.0	0.45	15.1	15.3	-0.26
Thabo Sefolosha	62	60	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.20	7	1	6	13.5	15.3	-1.85	16.0	14.0	2.01
Nenad Krstic	26	26	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.05	-7	15	-22	14.0	14.2	-0.18	15.1	15.3	-0.24
Jeff Green	56	55	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.16	0	8	-8	13.4	15.1	-1.73	16.2	14.1	2.11

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Brewer	62	62	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.18	14	-22	36	15.6	14.7	0.93	14.0	14.3	-0.32
Kosta Koufos	4	6	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.12	-5	-3	-2	16.5	15.2	1.30	16.0	14.0	1.99
Luke Ridnour	74	74	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.32	9	-17	26	15.4	14.7	0.67	13.9	14.9	-1.04
Kevin Love	85	85	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.37	4	-12	16	15.2	15.9	-0.77	13.7	17.1	-3.39
Nikola Pekovic	51	48	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.23	-7	-1	-6	15.2	15.3	-0.04	14.9	13.4	1.58
Sebastian Telfair	24	24	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.06	-17	9	-26	14.7	15.4	-0.67	14.9	13.9	1.04
Wesley Johnson	88	88	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.18	-10	2	-12	15.1	16.5	-1.39	14.3	12.8	1.48
Michael Beasley	66	65	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	5	-18	15.7	14.2	1.49	14.1	14.3	-0.21
Wayne Ellington	36	38	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.10	-15	7	-22	14.2	15.8	-1.59	13.8	14.3	-0.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.68,0.63,0.54,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.77,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 100, DEN 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.83,0.77,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.57,0.74,0.61,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.08,0	92.4%
OKC 104, LAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.68,0.61,0.69,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.63,0.75,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.27,0.06,0.13,0.07,0.04,0,0.01,0	92.3%
CLE 108, BOS 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.8,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.28,0.31,0.15,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	91.5%