NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	77		Excitement	5.1 [820]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +18.9%
Miami Heat	89		Comeback	1.2 [1198]		LVP	Mike Bibby (ATL): -11.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.14	0.02	0.04	11	85%	0.18	2	-0.06	4	50%	0.00
Jason Collins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.01
Josh Powell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	-0.02	10	55%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Teague	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Damien Wilkins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	12	42%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Jamal Crawford	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	16	37%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	9	28%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.02	-0.05	0.05	10	50%	-0.03	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.13	-0.02	18	62%	0.26	4	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	22	56%	0.14	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.00	0.04	11	63%	0.09	2	-0.06	13	85%	0.03
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	45%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	2.0	30.3	16.4	23.4	2.5	33.3	130.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +19.8%

MIA +17.8%

ATL -6.8%

MIA +16.8%

MIA +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.0	15.6	15.5	88.5	98.9	105.7
season	16.5	16.0		104.0	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.3	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	18.3	16.6	15.9	17.2	17.0
MIA	15.3	14.7	16.1	16.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Collins	9	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-15	18	14.4	17.3	-2.82	16.3	15.5	0.83
Zaza Pachulia	11	11	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-11	10	15.9	17.1	-1.22	13.2	15.9	-2.74
Damien Wilkins	24	28	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.04	-1	-11	10	17.2	16.9	0.32	13.5	16.5	-3.03
Jeff Teague	20	21	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-9	6	17.1	16.9	0.22	14.7	15.9	-1.20
Josh Powell	38	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-11	10	16.9	17.0	-0.15	15.8	15.4	0.41
Maurice Evans	46	48	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-8	4	17.2	16.8	0.37	16.6	14.5	2.09
Al Horford	55	57	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	-5	-2	17.3	16.4	0.90	15.9	15.0	0.98
Marvin Williams	59	60	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-8	4	17.0	16.9	0.07	15.5	15.8	-0.27
Mike Bibby	57	55	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.04	-13	1	-14	16.9	17.1	-0.24	16.5	14.2	2.32
Jamal Crawford	55	58	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.14	-11	-1	-10	16.7	17.4	-0.68	15.4	16.0	-0.64
Josh Smith	61	64	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.05	-18	6	-24	17.3	16.2	1.06	15.4	16.0	-0.52

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	73	72	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.19	14	-2	16	16.0	14.0	1.96	17.2	16.1	1.02
Dwyane Wade	73	72	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.19	14	-2	16	16.0	14.0	1.96	17.2	16.1	1.02
Mario Chalmers	52	50	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.01	14	-2	16	14.7	16.8	-2.08	17.1	16.8	0.34
Joel Anthony	40	39	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.07	8	4	4	15.1	16.0	-0.93	17.6	16.5	1.11
James Jones	37	35	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.13	3	9	-6	14.9	16.0	-1.09	16.6	17.2	-0.68
LeBron James	70	67	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.02	7	5	2	15.5	15.7	-0.21	17.0	16.9	0.10
Erick Dampier	23	22	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	9	-6	14.7	15.9	-1.20	15.6	17.4	-1.86
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	29	29	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	7	-2	17.0	14.9	2.08	17.4	16.7	0.71
Carlos Arroyo	38	37	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.14	-2	14	-16	16.8	14.7	2.08	16.8	17.1	-0.34
Juwan Howard	15	12	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.02	-6	18	-24	13.8	15.9	-2.15	15.3	17.2	-1.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.86,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.71,0.69,0.8,0.74,0.71,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.88,0.78,0.68,0.96,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 99, DEN 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.86,0.81,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.84,0.85,0.91,1	94.1%
CHH 79, NYK 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.73,0.78,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.81,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1	93.1%
NOP 84, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.77,0.85,0.8,0.8,0.74,0.8,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.74,0.71,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.85,0.83,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	93.0%