NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	133		Excitement	5.8 [683]		MVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): +29.1%
Denver Nuggets	138		Comeback	1.0 [1060]		LVP	Hakim Warrick (PHX): -6.7%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.22	0.30	0.00	0.08	24	78%	0.24	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Steve Nash	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.2	0.08	0.12	-0.00	8	74%	0.23	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.03
Josh Childress	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	0.00	0.03	9	68%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jared Dudley	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.01	0.02	7	60%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.01	4	70%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Channing Frye	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	10	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	13	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Grant Hill	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	9	52%	0.03	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.03
Hakim Warrick	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	12	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.29	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.01	15	73%	0.31	1	-0.02	11	73%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.27	0.27	0.16	0.14	0.03	14	74%	0.29	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.06
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	8	68%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	0.00	0.04	7	75%	0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	8	58%	0.06	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	11	58%	0.04	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Nene	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	55%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	7	39%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.01	2	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.4	27.5	16.3	29.7	2.5	44.4	149.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +22.8%

DEN +12.4%

DEN +18.4%

PHX -3.0%

PHX -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	DEN	NBA	PHX	DEN	NBA
this game	15.0	13.5	15.5	130.4	138.0	105.7
season	14.5	14.3		108.0	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.7		106.1	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	16.5	14.3	14.1	15.3	15.0
DEN	11.2	15.1	14.2	13.5	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Dudley	30	28	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.26	8	-13	21	14.6	15.2	-0.58	11.7	14.2	-2.47
Earl Barron	20	19	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.18	4	-9	13	16.7	14.6	2.13	13.8	13.4	0.47
Grant Hill	59	59	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.39	10	-15	25	14.4	15.9	-1.42	14.4	12.1	2.23
Goran Dragic	35	33	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.14	1	-6	7	16.1	14.5	1.55	13.1	13.7	-0.60
Josh Childress	41	40	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.25	3	-8	11	16.2	14.2	1.97	14.5	12.7	1.77
Channing Frye	60	62	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.12	-7	2	-9	15.1	14.9	0.27	14.1	12.3	1.80
Steve Nash	67	67	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.22	-6	1	-7	14.5	16.1	-1.55	13.7	13.1	0.60
Hedo Turkoglu	62	59	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.12	-10	5	-15	14.7	15.6	-0.92	12.3	15.1	-2.78
Hakim Warrick	59	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.07	-17	12	-29	15.3	14.7	0.51	12.9	14.2	-1.27
Jason Richardson	77	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	6	-17	14.6	16.3	-1.70	13.5	13.4	0.11

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	73	75	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-7	19	12.8	15.1	-2.26	15.0	15.0	0.00
Arron Afflalo	79	80	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.22	9	-4	13	13.8	12.3	1.49	15.6	13.1	2.43
Nene	69	69	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.19	8	-3	11	13.6	13.1	0.53	14.9	15.4	-0.48
Shelden Williams	38	39	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.07	13	-8	21	12.7	13.9	-1.21	15.5	14.8	0.73
J.R. Smith	61	62	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.33	-1	6	-7	14.5	11.8	2.73	13.6	17.2	-3.64
Ty Lawson	54	55	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.45	-8	13	-21	14.6	12.1	2.58	14.9	15.3	-0.40
Carmelo Anthony	7	6	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.12	8	-3	11	10.7	13.7	-2.95	15.5	15.0	0.49
Chris Andersen	31	32	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	6	-7	13.1	13.6	-0.53	15.8	14.7	1.08
Al Harrington	47	46	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.22	-6	11	-17	13.5	13.4	0.06	15.1	15.0	0.13
Gary Forbes	41	46	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.23	-9	14	-23	11.9	14.5	-2.60	15.5	14.7	0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.97,0.97,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 92, DET 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.77,0.8,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.94,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.97,1,0.99,0.96,0.99,0.95,1	95.5%
TOR 99, LAL 105	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.72,0.79,0.84,0.84,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.96,0.89,0.94,0.98,1	95.5%
TOR 56, MIN 73	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.87,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%