NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	97		Excitement	9.2 [95]		MVP	CJ Watson (CHI): +49.7%
Denver Nuggets	98		Comeback	8.9 [181]		LVP	Al Harrington (DEN): -15.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ Watson	0.50	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.12,0.36,0.5	0.10	0.36	-0.05	22	59%	0.56	3	-0.07	12	75%	0.01
Luol Deng	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.05	-0.02	17	59%	0.16	2	-0.02	7	86%	0.04
Joakim Noah	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.00	11	59%	0.09	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.04
Keith Bogans	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	6	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.01	0.01	12	30%	-0.04	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Omer Asik	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	3	20%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
James Johnson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.13	-0.01	-0.11	0.00	2	33%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.20

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.47	0.47	-0.01	0.46	-0.02	18	48%	0.50	2	-0.03	10	80%	0.02
Nene	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.03	-0.01	9	90%	0.19	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	9	41%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.03
Shelden Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.02	14	61%	0.13	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	55%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	11	54%	0.09	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	33%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.04	-0.02	6	42%	0.02	6	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.9	3.4	29.3	15.6	34.4	2.4	37.2	151.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +54.6%

DEN +4.9%

CHI -2.4%

CHI -15.5%

DEN +8.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DEN	NBA	CHI	DEN	NBA
this game	15.1	14.8	15.5	100.0	102.1	105.7
season	15.7	14.3		106.5	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.9		106.1	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.8	18.9	12.9	15.5	15.1
DEN	15.6	15.4	14.3	13.8	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omer Asik	36	38	0.60	-1.10	1.71	0.02	20	-21	41	13.2	16.2	-2.97	15.8	14.1	1.72
Kyle Korver	50	50	0.26	-0.76	1.03	0.09	6	-7	13	16.1	14.0	2.12	14.0	15.5	-1.52
John Lucas III	9	8	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-2	3	18.9	14.7	4.18	15.1	14.7	0.41
James Johnson	35	35	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.16	0	-1	1	14.8	15.3	-0.46	15.7	14.2	1.47
Ronnie Brewer	40	39	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.25	1	-2	3	15.8	14.6	1.25	15.0	14.6	0.38
Taj Gibson	24	23	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.16	-16	15	-31	15.7	14.9	0.87	14.3	14.9	-0.59
Luol Deng	81	81	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.38	-1	0	-1	15.0	15.5	-0.49	14.9	14.0	0.89
CJ Watson	89	89	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	1	-3	14.7	19.7	-5.08	14.7	15.6	-0.89
Keith Bogans	39	37	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.59	-5	4	-9	14.3	15.6	-1.27	15.1	14.5	0.63
Joakim Noah	82	80	-0.87	0.37	-1.23	-0.60	-9	8	-17	15.3	13.7	1.61	14.0	18.3	-4.27

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	50	52	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.37	11	-10	21	14.1	15.5	-1.40	16.8	13.1	3.78
Al Harrington	48	48	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.83	-11	12	-23	14.6	14.9	-0.21	13.1	17.0	-3.90
Ty Lawson	64	65	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.42	3	-2	5	14.8	14.6	0.28	16.1	13.0	3.17
Carmelo Anthony	79	78	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.41	1	0	1	14.9	13.9	0.98	14.8	16.2	-1.39
Shelden Williams	28	29	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.17	17	-16	33	14.7	14.8	-0.05	15.9	14.8	1.10
J.R. Smith	56	54	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.35	-4	5	-9	14.7	14.9	-0.21	15.5	14.6	0.96
Anthony Carter	32	33	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.18	-2	3	-5	14.6	14.8	-0.28	12.9	16.2	-3.26
Gary Forbes	12	14	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.07	-2	3	-5	15.5	14.6	0.86	16.5	14.9	1.64
Arron Afflalo	67	69	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.21	3	-2	5	14.6	15.0	-0.41	15.7	13.6	2.04
Chris Andersen	44	43	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.10	-11	12	-23	15.4	14.2	1.26	13.3	16.5	-3.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.73,0.77,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.35,0.33,0.24,0.54,0.77,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 96, ORL 99	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.73,0.8,0.74,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.41,0.27,0.4,0.54,0.45,0.58,1	92.1%
WAS 85, MIL 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.79,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.73,0.63,0.59,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.54,0.55,0.58,1	90.9%
DEN 92, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.86,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.86,0.92,0.93,0.74,0.66,0.47,0.57,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.47,0.71,0.57,0.42,1	89.2%