NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	84		Excitement	7.0 [430]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +42.8%
Dallas Mavericks	88		Comeback	6.6 [464]		LVP	Shawn Marion (DAL): -11.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.06	-0.00	13	66%	0.17	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.05
Rodney Stuckey	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16	0.12	0.04	-0.00	8	73%	0.17	1	-0.01	10	100%	0.08
Jason Maxiell	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	7	67%	0.07	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Will Bynum	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	43%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Richard Hamilton	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.03	-0.10	0.04	-0.03	7	28%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.02
Ben Gordon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.00	10	45%	0.06	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	30%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Greg Monroe	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	6	43%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.04

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.43	0.43	0.24	0.22	0.03	23	68%	0.47	1	-0.05	16	81%	0.09
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.17,0.12	0.12	-0.01	0.12	-0.01	17	46%	0.16	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.05	-0.03	11	42%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	9	35%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	6	29%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.5	28.3	17.7	25.2	1.7	37.3	137.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +13.5%

DAL +11.6%

DAL +9.2%

DAL +13.2%

DAL +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DAL	NBA	DET	DAL	NBA
this game	16.7	15.7	15.5	95.5	97.8	105.7
season	16.7	15.7		106.4	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.2		103.8	110.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.0	15.3	17.3	17.2	16.7
DAL	15.7	15.3	16.2	15.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	37	37	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.04	6	-10	16	16.8	16.6	0.11	15.4	15.9	-0.55
Ben Wallace	43	44	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.15	-6	2	-8	17.2	16.2	0.92	16.0	15.4	0.54
Will Bynum	29	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-6	8	17.0	16.5	0.51	15.3	15.9	-0.54
Charlie Villanueva	32	33	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.10	-3	-1	-2	17.4	16.3	1.12	14.7	16.2	-1.55
Greg Monroe	36	36	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.28	3	-7	10	16.2	17.0	-0.80	15.1	16.1	-0.99
Richard Hamilton	47	48	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.10	-7	3	-10	16.6	16.8	-0.12	16.1	15.2	0.91
Jason Maxiell	56	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.29	-1	-3	2	16.3	17.4	-1.12	16.2	14.7	1.55
Rodney Stuckey	59	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.24	-6	2	-8	16.5	17.0	-0.51	15.9	15.3	0.54
Ben Gordon	50	52	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.53	2	-6	8	16.7	16.7	-0.03	15.5	16.0	-0.51
Tayshaun Prince	51	53	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.34	-10	6	-16	16.6	16.8	-0.11	15.9	15.4	0.55

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	75	72	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.38	9	-5	14	15.6	15.9	-0.23	16.6	16.9	-0.30
Jason Terry	65	62	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.60	-2	6	-8	15.4	16.3	-0.89	16.6	17.0	-0.38
Caron Butler	70	70	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	15.8	15.3	0.42	16.6	16.9	-0.25
Jason Kidd	72	73	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	1	2	15.9	14.8	1.06	16.1	19.5	-3.34
Brendan Haywood	35	35	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	0	4	15.1	16.1	-0.97	17.3	16.3	0.94
Tyson Chandler	47	46	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.08	5	-1	6	16.1	15.2	0.90	16.9	16.5	0.46
DeShawn Stevenson	19	19	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.15	7	-3	10	16.3	15.5	0.81	16.5	16.7	-0.21
Shawn Marion	30	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	4	-4	15.5	15.7	-0.22	17.8	16.2	1.65
Ian Mahinmi	7	7	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	9	-14	14.3	15.8	-1.51	12.4	17.1	-4.63
Jose Juan Barea	30	28	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.01	-5	9	-14	15.7	15.7	-0.02	17.7	16.2	1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.53,0.65,0.73,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 91, MIA 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.67,0.75,0.93,0.94,0.92,1	92.1%
LAC 87, HOU 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.47,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.84,0.95,1,1	91.8%
OKC 92, LAC 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.69,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.2,0.32,0.64,0.71,0.86,0.89,0.99,1,1,1	91.6%