NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	101		Excitement	8.9 [124]		MVP	Amir Johnson (TOR): +82.0%
Toronto Raptors	102		Comeback	9.8 [104]		LVP	Sonny Weems (TOR): -12.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nate Robinson	0.18	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.15	0.06	0.02	14	69%	0.21	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Glen Davis	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.11	0.01	0.10	-0.00	6	60%	0.19	2	-0.08	8	75%	0.03
Delonte West	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Marquis Daniels	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	8	40%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Semih Erden	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,-0.08	0.06	-0.13	0.01	10	58%	-0.05	1	-0.03	13	69%	-0.05
Kevin Garnett	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	12	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.08,-0.1	-0.01	-0.08	0.01	14	54%	0.15	3	-0.25	7	71%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.82	0.82	0.16	0.66	0.00	5	89%	0.82	0	0.00	9	100%	0.23
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.06	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.08	-0.02	20	55%	0.07	4	-0.09	13	69%	-0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	8	32%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,-0.09	-0.09	0.05	-0.14	-0.00	6	67%	-0.06	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.07	0.02	10	48%	-0.05	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.11	-0.06	20	40%	-0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	37.2	15.6	33.1	2.6	38.3	152.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -41.4%

TOR +63.8%

BOS -9.3%

TOR +35.4%

TOR +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	TOR	NBA	BOS	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	15.6	15.5	108.6	109.7	105.7
season	15.7	15.1		104.8	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.8		111.2	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	17.0	16.1	13.0	15.3	15.3
TOR	14.3	13.4	17.0	18.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nate Robinson	68	68	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.48	20	-21	41	14.5	17.5	-2.95	16.0	14.6	1.37
Shaquille O'Neal	38	38	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.20	10	-11	21	14.9	15.6	-0.63	16.8	14.8	1.98
Kevin Garnett	68	69	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.44	15	-16	31	14.2	18.3	-4.10	16.8	12.2	4.63
Paul Pierce	69	69	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.47	14	-15	29	14.9	16.4	-1.47	16.3	13.8	2.50
Ray Allen	79	80	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.44	3	-4	7	14.7	18.7	-3.99	16.0	13.7	2.27
Glen Davis	56	55	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.18	-10	9	-19	16.6	13.4	3.27	15.3	16.1	-0.73
Semih Erden	23	23	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.02	-19	18	-37	15.9	15.1	0.78	11.4	17.0	-5.59
Marquis Daniels	29	28	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.01	-19	18	-37	16.8	14.7	2.14	14.2	16.3	-2.05
Delonte West	35	35	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.14	-19	18	-37	17.8	13.8	4.02	13.7	16.8	-3.14

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Leandro Barbosa	41	41	1.30	-0.80	2.10	0.68	21	-20	41	14.1	16.9	-2.81	17.4	13.7	3.65
Amir Johnson	46	48	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.39	14	-13	27	13.8	17.4	-3.60	17.1	13.4	3.64
Andrea Bargnani	76	76	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.41	6	-5	11	15.9	14.4	1.58	15.2	15.6	-0.40
Linas Kleiza	42	41	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.06	16	-15	31	13.9	17.1	-3.13	17.0	14.0	2.96
Sonny Weems	70	69	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.41	-2	3	-5	15.7	15.4	0.28	15.1	16.0	-0.91
Jose Calderon	64	63	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.39	-13	14	-27	16.8	13.0	3.79	14.1	17.9	-3.80
DeMar DeRozan	63	66	-0.52	1.02	-1.54	0.04	-19	20	-39	16.3	14.2	2.08	14.2	18.0	-3.72
Reggie Evans	63	61	-0.54	1.04	-1.59	-0.02	-18	19	-37	16.8	13.1	3.71	14.2	17.4	-3.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.67,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.85,0.78,0.55,0.21,0.32,0.31,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 91, DET 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.3,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.85,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.45,0.29,0.43,0.42,1	89.2%
SAS 80, DET 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.35,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.79,0.65,0.67,0.47,0.46,0.55,0.63,1	88.9%
CHI 113, MIL 116	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.67,0.61,0.37,0.47,0.41,1	88.9%