NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	87		Excitement	7.9 [268]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +29.3%
Dallas Mavericks	89		Comeback	10.3 [149]		LVP	Jason Kidd (DAL): -23.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.16	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.06	-0.01	19	60%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Glen Davis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Semih Erden	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.05	0.00	4	60%	-0.00	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.07	0.00	-0.07	0.00	20	45%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.11	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	11	46%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Rajon Rondo	-0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.00	15	35%	0.00	4	-0.18	1	100%	0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.06,-0.01,0.06,0.1,0.29	0.29	0.06	0.24	0.01	16	64%	0.42	4	-0.13	7	100%	0.07
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0,0,0,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.04	0.19	-0.01	11	63%	0.32	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.04
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.01	0.01	5	100%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	7	69%	0.10	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.05	-0.02	2	50%	-0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	13	39%	-0.02	3	-0.06	2	0%	-0.04
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.14	-0.10	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	26.7	16.5	27.5	2.5	30.2	130.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +77.1%

DAL +12.8%

BOS -15.5%

BOS -20.3%

BOS -4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DAL	NBA	BOS	DAL	NBA
this game	16.2	15.7	15.5	95.6	98.9	105.7
season	15.7	15.7		104.8	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.8		103.8	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.4	17.2	15.3	16.7	16.2
DAL	13.9	15.5	16.7	16.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marquis Daniels	29	30	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.16	-2	0	-2	16.0	16.2	-0.18	16.0	15.5	0.55
Semih Erden	21	23	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.05	-7	5	-12	17.2	15.8	1.41	16.0	15.6	0.39
Kevin Garnett	72	70	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.40	8	-10	18	16.1	16.2	-0.07	16.0	14.6	1.31
Jermaine O'Neal	21	20	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	6	-14	18.9	15.3	3.58	14.0	16.1	-2.08
Ray Allen	76	76	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.39	3	-5	8	16.2	15.9	0.26	15.9	14.4	1.55
Rajon Rondo	81	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.54	6	-8	14	16.0	17.6	-1.62	15.5	16.7	-1.21
Glen Davis	65	65	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.44	2	-4	6	15.6	17.5	-1.94	16.2	14.3	1.86
Nate Robinson	20	19	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	9	-20	14.9	16.5	-1.61	14.6	16.0	-1.38
Paul Pierce	70	68	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.58	-1	-1	0	16.1	16.3	-0.23	15.3	16.8	-1.52

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Marion	51	53	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.43	10	-8	18	15.1	16.4	-1.31	16.3	16.0	0.26
Jason Terry	63	65	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	-3	8	15.9	15.0	0.90	15.9	16.8	-0.86
Tyson Chandler	61	62	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.55	-1	3	-4	15.5	16.1	-0.64	16.2	16.1	0.07
Jason Kidd	62	64	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.60	-3	5	-8	15.4	16.2	-0.79	16.4	15.6	0.80
Dirk Nowitzki	77	75	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.39	4	-2	6	16.2	12.3	3.93	16.6	14.0	2.61
DeShawn Stevenson	28	28	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	4	-6	14.6	16.1	-1.54	15.7	16.3	-0.58
Brendan Haywood	29	29	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.11	3	-1	4	16.1	15.5	0.64	16.1	16.2	-0.07
Jose Juan Barea	29	28	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.13	3	-1	4	15.7	15.7	-0.02	15.0	16.7	-1.62
Caron Butler	50	51	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	0.02	-9	11	-20	15.9	15.3	0.62	16.2	16.1	0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.75,0.77,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.27,0.17,0.16,0.33,0.45,0.29,0.16,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 86, NOK 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.21,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.58,1	89.4%
WAS 91, TOR 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.71,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.85,0.84,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.21,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.17,1	89.2%
ATL 107, LAC 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.79,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.7,0.8,0.84,0.74,0.8,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.79,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.53,0.41,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.09,0.42,1	88.9%