NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	117		Excitement	9.1 [113]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +40.4%
Golden State Warriors	120		Comeback	9.3 [47]		LVP	Jeff Green (OKC): -19.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.27,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22	0.15	0.06	-0.01	29	58%	0.24	2	-0.02	11	100%	0.09
James Harden	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.16	0.04	0.01	11	75%	0.19	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.00	0.12	-0.02	9	44%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	9	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03	-0.08	0.03	-0.03	17	48%	0.16	6	-0.19	8	100%	0.11
Eric Maynor	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.1	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	6	42%	0.06	2	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.19	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,-0.06,-0.19,-0.19	-0.06	-0.16	-0.02	17	43%	-0.03	3	-0.17	3	0%	-0.23

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,0.02,0.16,0.39,0.39,0.4	0.40	0.02	0.33	-0.05	21	56%	0.45	4	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2	0.20	0.05	0.15	-0.00	6	60%	0.20	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.09	0.00	16	66%	0.26	4	-0.10	6	67%	0.03
Corey Maggette	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.04	-0.04	10	62%	0.15	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.01	10	52%	0.08	1	-0.03	7	86%	-0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	1	150%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.11	-0.07	0.02	10	80%	0.16	3	-0.13	5	100%	0.02
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Chris Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.8	2.5	30.5	16.3	24.7	2.3	39.3	146.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +61.7%

GSW +1.2%

OKC -35.6%

GSW +20.8%

GSW +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	GSW	NBA	OKC	GSW	NBA
this game	15.1	12.9	15.3	113.6	117.6	106.0
season	15.0	13.4		106.2	106.5
opponent	14.8	15.5		110.0	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	12.6	14.3	19.4	15.2	15.1
GSW	12.3	12.4	12.4	14.8	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	40	39	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.14	10	-13	23	14.8	15.3	-0.52	12.7	13.1	-0.36
Kevin Ollie	5	5	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.01	1	-4	5	6.6	15.6	-8.98	11.0	13.0	-2.04
Kevin Durant	87	85	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.45	10	-13	23	14.7	17.8	-3.16	12.7	14.1	-1.41
Eric Maynor	38	34	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.02	-5	2	-7	14.1	15.8	-1.69	11.8	13.5	-1.72
James Harden	69	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.01	-12	9	-21	15.2	15.0	0.17	12.4	13.9	-1.50
Russell Westbrook	84	85	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.40	1	-4	5	15.1	15.4	-0.27	12.5	15.3	-2.82
Thabo Sefolosha	68	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.44	0	-3	3	15.5	14.4	1.17	14.3	10.1	4.17
Jeff Green	73	75	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.36	-6	3	-9	15.7	13.9	1.80	13.3	11.8	1.53
Serge Ibaka	51	50	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.23	-14	11	-25	16.6	13.7	2.86	13.5	12.4	1.10

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronny Turiaf	56	55	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.48	5	-2	7	13.4	12.4	0.96	15.4	14.8	0.58
Anthony Morrow	51	52	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-12	27	14.3	11.6	2.63	15.6	14.6	0.99
Stephen Curry	79	78	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	0	3	12.0	16.1	-4.06	14.4	17.6	-3.24
Reggie Williams	89	91	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.03	13	-10	23	12.6	15.4	-2.80	15.5	12.2	3.28
Monta Ellis	77	79	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.58	-8	11	-19	13.2	12.2	1.03	15.6	13.8	1.77
Anthony Tolliver	94	95	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.34	-1	4	-5	12.9	13.6	-0.74	14.8	19.0	-4.18
Devean George	16	17	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	0	3	10.1	13.5	-3.34	10.1	16.1	-6.02
Corey Maggette	45	44	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.20	-10	13	-23	13.2	12.7	0.50	16.6	14.0	2.60
Chris Hunter	3	4	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	8	-13	23.3	12.6	10.71	16.2	15.1	1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.16,0.1,0.19,0.21,0.31,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.26,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.61,0.47,0.54,0.68,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 101, CHA 102	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.23,0.21,0.23,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.22,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.57,0.53,0.68,0.86,0.71,0.73,0.45,0.63,0.78,0.53,1	92.5%
SAS 88, CHA 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.24,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.68,0.63,0.68,0.42,1	91.1%
BOS 83, WAS 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.37,0.45,0.41,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.31,0.55,0.77,0.58,1	90.9%