NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	83		Excitement	7.0 [383]		MVP	Rudy Fernandez (POR): +16.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	77		Comeback	2.0 [351]		LVP	Jason Kidd (DAL): -21.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11	0.14	-0.02	0.01	24	62%	0.19	3	-0.08	17	100%	0.09
Eduardo Najera	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.08	-0.00	2	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.06	-0.00	9	46%	0.06	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.03
Caron Butler	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.04	0.01	16	50%	0.07	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	4	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.03
Erick Dampier	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22	-0.17	-0.06	-0.02	8	12%	-0.14	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.09	0.00	7	79%	0.18	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	9	39%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	0.06	-0.07	0.05	20	53%	0.00	2	-0.06	11	82%	-0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	14	35%	0.02	2	-0.10	9	56%	-0.04
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	8	44%	-0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	3	67%	0.04	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.13	-0.06	-0.00	12	22%	-0.16	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.8	2.4	33.1	15.8	25.2	2.4	36.6	146.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR -1.7%

DAL +9.6%

DAL +12.7%

DAL +20.2%

DAL +9.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	POR	NBA	DAL	POR	NBA
this game	16.0	16.8	15.3	94.3	87.5	106.0
season	15.2	16.7		107.2	108.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		106.3	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.9	15.7	15.8	17.7	16.0
POR	16.4	17.0	17.0	16.6	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brendan Haywood	49	47	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.36	15	-9	24	15.4	16.7	-1.33	16.3	17.2	-0.92
Jason Kidd	76	75	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.37	7	-1	8	15.7	17.4	-1.67	17.2	14.4	2.78
Jason Terry	67	66	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.21	11	-5	16	15.8	16.6	-0.78	17.1	15.7	1.36
Caron Butler	70	70	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.18	4	2	2	16.0	15.8	0.18	16.9	16.2	0.73
Dirk Nowitzki	79	77	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.26	0	6	-6	15.8	17.4	-1.63	16.7	16.9	-0.18
Jose Juan Barea	18	20	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.04	2	4	-2	18.6	15.3	3.31	16.7	16.8	-0.06
Eduardo Najera	16	19	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	2	2	17.4	15.7	1.78	18.1	16.4	1.73
DeShawn Stevenson	33	33	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	12	-18	15.4	16.3	-0.98	14.8	17.9	-3.04
Erick Dampier	32	33	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.06	-7	13	-20	16.6	15.6	0.92	16.6	16.8	-0.18

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Martell Webster	13	14	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.06	2	-8	10	16.4	16.8	-0.43	16.4	15.9	0.45
Jerryd Bayless	37	35	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-4	2	17.8	16.0	1.78	16.0	16.0	0.04
Nicolas Batum	53	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.35	2	-8	10	15.5	18.7	-3.17	16.4	15.3	1.09
Rudy Fernandez	41	39	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	0	-6	17.4	16.2	1.20	15.1	16.7	-1.57
LaMarcus Aldridge	76	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.36	2	-8	10	16.7	16.8	-0.10	16.6	12.2	4.40
Juwan Howard	33	33	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.02	-11	5	-16	17.5	16.3	1.13	15.8	16.1	-0.30
Andre Miller	45	47	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.21	-6	0	-6	16.5	17.0	-0.44	16.7	15.2	1.51
Marcus Camby	67	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-3	0	16.4	17.8	-1.39	15.4	18.1	-2.75
Brandon Roy	75	77	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.31	-8	2	-10	17.0	15.5	1.51	15.6	18.5	-2.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.07,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 94, HOU 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.31,0.11,0.01,0,0	93.5%
LAL 102, UTA 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.2,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.35,0.33,0.38,0.11,0.01,0,0	93.0%
IND 97, SAC 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.19,0.21,0.06,0,0	92.5%