NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	79		Excitement	6.7 [442]		MVP	Carlos Delfino (MIL): +9.7%
Chicago Bulls	74		Comeback	3.2 [136]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -25.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Delfino	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1	-0.02	0.10	-0.01	8	44%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
John Salmons	0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09	0.11	-0.00	0.02	19	57%	0.09	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Luke Ridnour	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	9	59%	0.08	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Kurt Thomas	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,0.03,0.03	-0.05	0.07	-0.01	8	25%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	14	57%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	8	28%	-0.10	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Brandon Jennings	-0.26	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.25,-0.25,-0.26	-0.15	-0.10	0.01	8	22%	-0.11	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.00	4	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.12,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	9	50%	0.13	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.07	-0.14	0.00	17	42%	-0.14	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.12	-0.10	0.01	12	46%	-0.08	6	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24	-0.24	-0.11	-0.12	0.01	16	28%	-0.22	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.8	29.1	15.4	21.6	2.5	36.5	131.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +26.6%

MIL +0.2%

MIL +15.9%

MIL +7.0%

MIL +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHI	NBA	MIL	CHI	NBA
this game	17.1	15.2	15.3	89.8	82.2	106.0
season	15.5	14.7		103.3	101.9
opponent	15.7	15.5		103.9	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.5	16.2	18.0	17.0	17.1
CHI	14.0	16.5	17.1	13.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	59	61	0.93	-0.43	1.37	0.38	19	-14	33	16.7	18.1	-1.43	15.5	14.6	0.90
Carlos Delfino	65	67	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.42	5	0	5	17.0	17.7	-0.68	15.0	16.0	-1.03
John Salmons	80	83	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.42	2	3	-1	17.1	17.5	-0.39	15.0	17.7	-2.69
Brandon Jennings	49	49	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	3	-1	17.5	16.7	0.77	15.0	15.5	-0.42
Ersan Ilyasova	59	62	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.33	4	1	3	16.4	18.7	-2.30	15.3	15.1	0.18
Luke Ridnour	47	48	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.10	6	-1	7	16.9	17.5	-0.64	15.8	14.6	1.20
Luc Mbah a Moute	29	28	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.03	1	4	-3	18.7	16.4	2.30	15.1	15.3	-0.18
Dan Gadzuric	23	23	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	0.09	-11	16	-27	18.1	16.8	1.33	14.7	15.4	-0.66
Jerry Stackhouse	29	29	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.18	-3	8	-11	17.7	16.9	0.86	15.6	15.0	0.57

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronald Murray	34	33	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.20	9	-14	23	14.2	15.9	-1.65	16.9	17.3	-0.43
James Johnson	8	7	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.03	0	-5	5	17.0	15.1	1.94	15.1	17.3	-2.18
Hakim Warrick	7	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.06	-3	-2	-1	17.7	15.0	2.69	17.5	17.1	0.39
Jannero Pargo	11	10	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	0	-5	16.2	15.1	1.08	19.2	16.9	2.32
Joakim Noah	56	55	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.09	-7	2	-9	15.3	15.1	0.19	17.8	16.1	1.64
Derrick Rose	73	72	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.34	0	-5	5	14.7	17.6	-2.98	17.0	17.7	-0.66
Brad Miller	34	33	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.44	2	-7	9	15.1	15.3	-0.19	16.1	17.8	-1.64
Taj Gibson	64	62	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.29	-7	2	-9	15.3	15.0	0.27	17.1	17.2	-0.01
Luol Deng	82	81	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.38	-5	0	-5	15.1	17.0	-1.94	17.3	15.1	2.18
Kirk Hinrich	81	79	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.34	-9	4	-13	15.8	10.4	5.32	17.1	17.8	-0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.38,0.35,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.13,0.15,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.4,0.31,0.1,0.22,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 94, GSW 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.19,0.3,0.23,0.16,0.08,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.25,0.29,0.16,0.04,0	91.1%
TOR 99, DAL 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.35,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.35,0.23,0.31,0.04,0.01,0,0	90.8%
CHI 108, PHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.31,0.26,0.24,0.35,0.29,0.19,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.47,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.17,0.02,0	90.5%