NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	104		Excitement	7.9 [237]		MVP	Danilo Gallinari (NYK): +32.9%
New York Knicks	109		Comeback	2.3 [179]		LVP	Anthony Carter (DEN): -7.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.17	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.17	0.15	0.01	-0.02	26	60%	0.18	1	-0.01	8	100%	0.06
Arron Afflalo	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.00	-0.02	6	92%	0.12	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	62%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.24,-0.2,-0.26,-0.23,-0.23,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.16,0.01,0	-0.15	0.12	-0.02	16	32%	0.12	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Joey Graham	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01	0.12	-0.10	0.03	13	61%	0.01	1	-0.03	15	93%	0.05
Nene	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	6	71%	0.10	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.31,0.33	0.33	0.10	0.21	-0.03	19	58%	0.39	2	-0.06	10	90%	0.08
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.19	0.19	0.02	0.16	-0.01	11	57%	0.27	2	-0.08	6	67%	-0.03
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.00	0.01	9	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Henry Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.01	5	70%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Duhon	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0,0	-0.00	0.06	-0.07	-0.00	14	59%	0.15	2	-0.15	11	55%	-0.09
J.R. Giddens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	0.02	13	40%	-0.01	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.4	31.3	16.6	23.7	3.4	43.5	147.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +37.9%

NYK +8.9%

NYK +12.6%

DEN -12.6%

NYK +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NYK	NBA	DEN	NYK	NBA
this game	14.6	15.5	15.3	109.5	113.5	106.0
season	14.4	14.7		110.3	105.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		109.9	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.0	13.5	18.8	13.2	14.6
NYK	16.0	15.8	17.2	13.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	71	72	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.32	14	-19	33	13.6	17.6	-3.99	16.1	13.8	2.24
Nene	78	79	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.31	11	-16	27	14.2	16.6	-2.44	15.7	14.8	0.91
Joey Graham	47	46	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-5	5	15.3	14.0	1.21	17.2	14.0	3.19
Chauncey Billups	74	75	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.28	4	-9	13	14.4	15.7	-1.32	15.8	14.6	1.20
Malik Allen	11	12	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.03	-7	2	-9	14.2	14.7	-0.52	14.8	15.6	-0.77
Carmelo Anthony	83	84	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.34	-1	-4	3	14.8	13.8	0.93	15.5	15.7	-0.18
Anthony Carter	24	23	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.03	-13	8	-21	15.7	14.3	1.37	14.7	15.8	-1.07
Chris Andersen	40	41	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.11	-18	13	-31	16.1	13.6	2.47	14.8	16.1	-1.32
J.R. Smith	47	48	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.29	-15	10	-25	14.9	14.4	0.50	13.6	17.4	-3.73

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danilo Gallinari	81	80	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.30	12	-7	19	15.2	17.4	-2.24	14.7	14.5	0.21
Toney Douglas	69	71	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.36	7	-2	9	15.9	14.6	1.28	14.7	14.5	0.13
Al Harrington	75	73	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.25	9	-4	13	14.5	19.0	-4.47	14.7	14.5	0.24
David Lee	84	83	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.41	-2	7	-9	15.6	14.8	0.77	14.7	14.2	0.45
Tracy McGrady	56	55	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.08	7	-2	9	16.6	14.0	2.59	15.6	13.3	2.32
Sergio Rodriguez	20	19	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.05	7	-2	9	14.4	15.8	-1.40	15.0	14.6	0.45
J.R. Giddens	47	45	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.29	-6	11	-17	14.3	16.7	-2.38	13.4	15.8	-2.40
Henry Walker	43	45	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	10	-15	17.4	14.0	3.46	14.4	14.9	-0.46
Chris Duhon	5	4	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.02	-4	9	-13	16.6	15.5	1.15	13.0	14.7	-1.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.64,0.85,0.74,0.85,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.87,0.86,0.78,0.69,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 91, MIA 97	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.59,0.7,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.71,0.84,0.84,1	91.0%
VAN 100, MIN 101	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.89,0.78,0.84,0.73,1	90.6%
MIA 94, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.79,0.84,0.77,1	90.6%