NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	106		Excitement	2.9 [1196]		MVP	Caron Butler (DAL): +10.0%
Dallas Mavericks	113		Comeback	1.1 [1288]		LVP	Ronald Murray (CHI): -11.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Acie Law	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.20	0.00	0.10	8	96%	0.10	1	-0.00	7	100%	0.01
Hakim Warrick	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	8	59%	0.03	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.01
Chris Richard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	3	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	55%	0.04	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Taj Gibson	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	9	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	10	45%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	0.00	0.03	8	50%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
James Johnson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	9	61%	0.01	5	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.00	-0.00	17	35%	-0.07	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.18	0.00	0.08	11	71%	0.10	0	0.00	16	87%	0.01
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.02	0.04	9	83%	0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.00	0.00	16	65%	0.10	2	-0.02	8	75%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.02	6	69%	0.08	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	0.00	0.05	5	92%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	-0.01	-0.04	10	45%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	3	40%	-0.00	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	12	46%	-0.01	3	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.14	0.00	-0.07	5	0%	-0.03	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	24.8	16.8	30.5	1.0	33.3	136.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +30.9%

DAL +3.4%

DAL +1.5%

DAL +11.1%

DAL +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DAL	NBA	CHI	DAL	NBA
this game	14.9	15.3	15.3	111.6	117.7	106.0
season	14.7	15.2		101.9	107.2
opponent	15.5	15.7		104.6	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.4	14.6	15.4	12.0	14.9
DAL	12.6	15.4	14.0	19.3	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Richard	26	27	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.24	4	-11	15	16.9	14.1	2.77	14.8	15.5	-0.65
Acie Law	41	42	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.42	10	-17	27	14.8	14.9	-0.16	16.3	14.5	1.74
Hakim Warrick	48	48	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.19	-1	-6	5	15.9	13.8	2.07	15.7	14.9	0.85
James Johnson	50	51	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.13	-3	-4	1	13.9	16.0	-2.06	15.9	14.6	1.28
Jannero Pargo	37	37	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	6	-19	14.3	15.2	-0.94	13.5	16.4	-2.92
Taj Gibson	68	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	-2	-3	15.1	14.4	0.70	14.0	18.6	-4.61
Brad Miller	69	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.05	-11	4	-15	14.1	16.9	-2.77	15.5	14.8	0.65
Ronald Murray	55	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.11	-9	2	-11	16.2	13.0	3.15	15.5	15.0	0.41
Kirk Hinrich	81	82	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.22	-7	0	-7	14.1	19.3	-5.17	15.9	11.4	4.51

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	72	72	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.22	5	2	3	16.5	11.6	4.93	14.8	15.1	-0.28
Caron Butler	69	66	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.12	7	0	7	15.4	14.9	0.55	16.0	12.2	3.79
Shawn Marion	73	72	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.27	2	5	-3	14.6	17.5	-2.95	14.2	17.0	-2.81
Erick Dampier	41	39	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.11	6	1	5	13.9	16.3	-2.49	16.4	13.8	2.56
Jason Kidd	49	48	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.03	8	-1	9	13.3	17.3	-4.03	16.4	13.3	3.12
Jose Juan Barea	47	47	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.26	-1	8	-9	17.3	13.3	4.03	13.3	16.4	-3.12
Brendan Haywood	50	52	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	3	1	16.2	14.3	1.96	14.4	15.4	-1.04
Jason Terry	48	48	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.35	-5	12	-17	15.8	14.7	1.06	14.6	15.1	-0.46
DeShawn Stevenson	13	13	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.01	6	1	5	12.4	15.7	-3.35	13.8	15.0	-1.19
Rodrigue Beaubois	18	18	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	4	-1	13.9	15.6	-1.65	13.1	15.3	-2.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 93, OKC 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	97.0%
CHA 68, UTA 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
NOP 100, HOU 122	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.83,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.88,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%