NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	97		Excitement	4.2 [947]		MVP	Mike Conley (MEM): +10.3%
Memphis Grizzlies	104		Comeback	2.3 [1070]		LVP	Jannero Pargo (CHI): -14.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ronald Murray	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.01	19	60%	0.10	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Hakim Warrick	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.14	0.01	0.08	12	69%	0.07	0	0.00	8	100%	0.02
Chris Richard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Alexander	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	4	33%	-0.03	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	10	50%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.04	11	64%	0.05	5	-0.10	6	83%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.04	15	34%	0.01	5	-0.16	5	80%	0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	9	76%	0.13	3	-0.03	7	71%	-0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.13	0.00	0.05	12	86%	0.17	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.03	0.05	-0.04	15	50%	0.10	3	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.03	6	59%	0.05	2	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	56%	0.04	3	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hamed Haddadi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.00	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	13	43%	-0.01	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.6	32.0	16.0	30.2	2.4	41.5	148.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +24.9%

MEM +0.4%

MEM +19.2%

MEM +7.0%

CHI -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MEM	NBA	CHI	MEM	NBA
this game	13.2	15.3	15.3	96.0	103.0	106.0
season	14.7	15.4		101.9	106.8
opponent	15.0	15.7		108.4	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.5	15.9	11.8	11.1	13.2
MEM	16.1	13.6	15.9	15.6	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Brown	22	23	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.17	8	-15	23	12.3	13.5	-1.16	16.3	15.0	1.37
Joe Alexander	0	1	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.01	0	-7	7	0.0	13.2	-13.23	6.0	15.4	-9.38
Chris Richard	30	29	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.26	8	-15	23	13.5	13.1	0.39	15.1	15.3	-0.21
Hakim Warrick	63	63	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.35	6	-13	19	12.4	14.6	-2.12	14.2	17.1	-2.96
Acie Law	68	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.06	-5	-2	-3	14.0	11.6	2.45	14.9	16.0	-1.12
James Johnson	55	55	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.32	0	-7	7	12.8	13.8	-0.98	15.3	15.3	0.01
Brad Miller	62	61	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.06	-12	5	-17	12.8	14.0	-1.22	15.3	15.3	-0.06
Taj Gibson	50	51	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.06	-16	9	-25	14.4	12.1	2.32	16.6	13.9	2.75
Jannero Pargo	74	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.24	-8	1	-9	13.1	13.5	-0.40	16.3	12.6	3.63
Ronald Murray	81	81	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.09	-16	9	-25	13.4	12.7	0.66	14.6	18.0	-3.45

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hasheem Thabeet	59	59	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.03	21	-14	35	15.6	14.9	0.74	13.6	12.6	1.00
Rudy Gay	79	77	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.02	20	-13	33	15.0	16.5	-1.49	13.3	13.1	0.19
Mike Conley	73	72	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.01	17	-10	27	14.9	16.2	-1.33	13.2	13.4	-0.21
O.J. Mayo	76	76	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.11	12	-5	17	14.8	16.8	-2.06	13.2	13.4	-0.23
DeMarre Carroll	20	19	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.04	15	-8	23	12.8	15.9	-3.04	15.1	12.8	2.31
Zach Randolph	73	74	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.15	-1	8	-9	15.4	15.1	0.30	13.0	13.9	-0.90
Sam Young	24	24	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.16	-4	11	-15	17.0	14.8	2.19	13.7	13.1	0.63
Hamed Haddadi	23	22	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.28	-9	16	-25	16.0	15.1	0.87	12.2	13.5	-1.28
Darrell Arthur	17	18	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.17	-6	13	-19	18.2	14.7	3.47	13.7	13.1	0.60
Marcus Williams	29	31	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	16	-25	15.8	15.1	0.76	12.9	13.4	-0.47
Ronnie Brewer	32	33	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.42	-21	28	-49	15.2	15.3	-0.19	12.5	13.6	-1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.69,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.93,0.85,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 93, SEA 111	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
NJN 92, SAC 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.5%
MEM 87, WAS 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.77,0.87,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%