NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	111		Excitement	5.2 [755]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +19.2%
Oklahoma City Thunder	119		Comeback	1.1 [928]		LVP	Kyrylo Fesenko (UTA): -8.6%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.27	0.02	0.10	11	104%	0.22	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Deron Williams	0.15	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.16	0.03	0.04	14	69%	0.20	2	-0.05	11	91%	0.03
Kyle Korver	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	9	55%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
CJ Miles	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.02	-0.03	12	33%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sundiata Gaines	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Paul Millsap	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	14	43%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Carlos Boozer	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.02	-0.04	0.05	14	58%	0.02	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Kyrylo Fesenko	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	3	29%	-0.06	1	-0.03	8	25%	-0.10

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.21	0.05	0.07	17	74%	0.25	2	-0.05	13	100%	0.06
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.04	0.01	9	65%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	8	65%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.03	0.04	16	70%	0.20	5	-0.12	11	55%	-0.06
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	6	67%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	11	52%	0.06	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.00
Serge Ibaka	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Weaver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	29.8	15.7	27.2	1.6	37.0	138.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +39.1%

OKC +2.9%

OKC +5.0%

UTA -1.5%

OKC +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	OKC	NBA	UTA	OKC	NBA
this game	15.3	15.4	15.3	118.1	126.6	106.0
season	15.3	15.0		109.5	106.2
opponent	15.5	15.0		103.1	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	16.0	16.5	15.5	13.2	15.3
OKC	14.0	16.2	14.5	16.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyrylo Fesenko	29	31	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.05	1	-9	10	15.0	15.4	-0.40	15.6	15.2	0.42
Sundiata Gaines	21	20	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-4	0	13.5	15.8	-2.26	14.4	15.6	-1.16
Kyle Korver	45	47	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.07	-4	-4	0	15.2	15.3	-0.10	15.1	15.6	-0.55
Deron Williams	73	74	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-4	0	15.8	13.5	2.26	15.6	14.4	1.16
Wesley Matthews	70	71	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-5	2	15.2	15.6	-0.41	15.0	16.4	-1.42
CJ Miles	74	72	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	1	-10	15.3	15.1	0.16	15.7	14.4	1.24
Carlos Boozer	82	81	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.25	-7	-1	-6	15.3	15.2	0.03	15.1	16.9	-1.81
Paul Millsap	76	74	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.23	-10	2	-12	15.5	14.4	1.03	15.7	13.9	1.79

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	79	80	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.21	11	-3	14	15.2	16.4	-1.24	15.3	14.9	0.41
Thabo Sefolosha	50	51	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.15	9	-1	10	15.6	15.1	0.55	15.1	15.4	-0.30
Russell Westbrook	78	79	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.31	3	5	-2	15.2	16.1	-0.92	15.2	15.5	-0.23
Nenad Krstic	60	61	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.24	5	3	2	15.9	14.4	1.58	15.2	15.5	-0.27
Jeff Green	68	69	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.16	3	5	-2	15.6	14.6	1.03	15.5	14.7	0.81
Nick Collison	40	40	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	3	2	15.0	15.6	-0.67	16.0	14.7	1.26
Kyle Weaver	32	30	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.09	1	7	-6	14.6	15.8	-1.21	14.4	15.7	-1.24
Serge Ibaka	42	41	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	8	-8	15.4	15.3	0.03	15.2	15.3	-0.10
Eric Maynor	21	19	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	5	-2	15.4	15.3	0.09	15.0	15.3	-0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.83,0.81,0.74,0.68,0.79,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.93,0.89,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 92, OKC 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.85,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.92,0.88,0.96,0.95,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.96,1	95.0%
UTA 80, MIN 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.76,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.91,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.82,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1	94.9%
PHX 102, LAC 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.8,0.83,0.79,0.78,0.77,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.94,0.84,0.9,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.8%