NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	90		Excitement	2.7 [1226]		MVP	Ronny Turiaf (GSW): +11.4%
Orlando Magic	117		Comeback	1.0 [1312]		LVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): -11.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ronny Turiaf	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.01	-0.03	10	62%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
CJ Watson	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.10	0.00	0.08	10	64%	0.02	1	-0.00	8	62%	-0.01
Devean George	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	-0.00	0.08	5	75%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	13	59%	0.04	4	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Reggie Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	14	45%	0.00	3	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Chris Hunter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	7	29%	-0.04	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	11	36%	-0.05	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.15	-0.00	-0.04	12	35%	-0.07	5	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.01	-0.03	11	62%	0.11	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	17	62%	0.11	3	-0.06	11	55%	-0.02
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	0.00	0.06	10	71%	0.05	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	53%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	14	46%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.06	3	33%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	8	75%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.02	8	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.10	0.00	-0.10	5	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	5	70%	-0.02	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.3	28.4	16.5	24.2	2.5	29.3	130.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +36.7%

ORL +0.3%

ORL +9.8%

ORL +0.6%

ORL +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	ORL	NBA	GSW	ORL	NBA
this game	13.7	16.0	15.3	91.8	121.9	106.0
season	13.4	15.4		106.5	110.1
opponent	15.9	14.8		101.9	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.4	14.8	14.0	13.8	13.7
ORL	12.9	15.2	17.4	19.6	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ Watson	75	74	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.09	-11	-16	5	13.1	15.7	-2.59	15.1	19.4	-4.31
Chris Hunter	36	38	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.26	-17	-10	-7	12.9	14.1	-1.28	17.7	15.0	2.68
Ronny Turiaf	50	45	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.14	-14	-13	-1	14.7	12.6	2.14	15.1	16.9	-1.79
Devean George	46	46	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.18	-16	-11	-5	14.4	13.1	1.31	17.7	14.6	3.09
Anthony Morrow	82	80	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.16	-16	-11	-5	13.9	12.4	1.55	16.1	15.7	0.35
Anthony Tolliver	63	62	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.20	-18	-9	-9	12.8	15.2	-2.33	15.2	17.6	-2.49
Reggie Williams	71	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.17	-18	-9	-9	13.8	13.4	0.37	16.5	14.6	1.95
Stephen Curry	67	64	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.27	-25	-2	-23	13.9	13.2	0.70	16.0	16.2	-0.27

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jameer Nelson	51	53	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.27	24	3	21	14.6	17.7	-3.14	13.9	13.4	0.59
Vince Carter	42	46	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.15	19	8	11	15.7	16.3	-0.62	14.9	12.6	2.34
Brandon Bass	30	31	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.26	21	6	15	18.7	14.8	3.87	15.7	12.7	2.98
Marcin Gortat	30	30	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.07	14	13	1	15.9	16.1	-0.21	14.9	13.1	1.72
Mickael Pietrus	46	45	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.17	14	13	1	17.3	14.9	2.47	14.3	13.2	1.14
Matt Barnes	51	54	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.05	10	17	-7	14.6	17.7	-3.06	13.2	14.2	-0.96
Rashard Lewis	57	59	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.14	11	16	-5	14.6	18.2	-3.64	12.9	14.8	-1.86
Dwight Howard	66	68	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.22	13	14	-1	16.1	15.9	0.21	13.1	14.9	-1.72
JJ Redick	50	48	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.14	7	20	-13	16.8	15.2	1.58	12.6	14.7	-2.18
Jason Williams	34	35	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.05	4	23	-19	18.2	14.9	3.35	14.3	13.3	0.95
Anthony Johnson	11	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	28	-29	16.2	16.0	0.16	10.1	14.1	-3.98
Ryan Anderson	12	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	28	-29	15.7	16.1	-0.43	11.2	14.0	-2.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.62,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 80, SAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
SAC 95, DAL 116	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
MEM 85, MIA 118	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%