NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	118		Excitement	12.3 [7]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +77.6%
Cleveland Cavaliers	116		Comeback	4.5 [130]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): -25.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.78	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.33,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.78	0.12	0.64	-0.02	28	56%	0.81	1	-0.04	16	81%	0.03
Arron Afflalo	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.02	0.00	6	92%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.01	12	54%	0.15	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.03
Chris Andersen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	58%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Nene	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	10	40%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.1,0	-0.00	0.03	0.03	18	47%	0.06	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.19,-0.19,-0.1,0.03,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.25,-0.25	-0.03	-0.23	0.00	20	43%	-0.05	1	-0.20	2	100%	0.06

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.32,0.25,0.49,0.41,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.47	0.47	0.07	0.39	-0.01	33	52%	0.60	3	-0.13	17	71%	-0.04
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.11	-0.00	5	67%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.02	7	74%	0.13	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	4	73%	0.08	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.14
Jawad Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.05	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.08	-0.11	0.01	8	62%	-0.05	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	5	25%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	0.03	-0.15	0.00	15	50%	-0.10	1	-0.03	6	0%	-0.21

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.8	3.5	34.3	18.7	28.2	3.4	38.1	1.8	16.6	170.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	2.0	39.8	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +49.8%

CLE -11.4%

DEN +3.3%

CLE -0.8%

DEN +9.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CLE	NBA	DEN	CLE	NBA
this game	15.9	15.6	15.3	118.0	113.7	106.0
season	14.4	16.1		110.3	109.5
opponent	15.0	15.5		103.3	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	12.8	18.1	17.4	15.0	17.1	15.9
CLE	16.5	14.6	15.3	15.7	16.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	55	57	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.47	7	-5	12	16.1	15.5	0.63	15.6	15.6	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	90	92	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.37	8	-6	14	15.8	16.3	-0.49	15.8	14.3	1.47
Kenyon Martin	85	85	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.36	6	-4	10	15.8	16.3	-0.56	15.9	14.4	1.46
Chauncey Billups	82	83	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.51	-2	4	-6	15.4	18.2	-2.81	16.1	13.6	2.52
Arron Afflalo	46	46	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.30	-3	5	-8	15.7	16.0	-0.38	15.3	15.9	-0.59
Nene	72	73	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.28	-8	10	-18	15.4	17.1	-1.73	16.0	14.8	1.17
Malik Allen	0	1	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	2	-2	0.0	15.9	-15.86	4.0	15.7	-11.74
Chris Andersen	42	43	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.11	4	-2	6	16.7	15.2	1.47	15.5	15.7	-0.28
Ty Lawson	28	30	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	4	-6	17.5	15.2	2.28	13.5	16.5	-3.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Hickson	58	58	0.28	-0.78	1.06	0.28	0	-2	2	15.2	16.2	-0.97	15.9	15.8	0.09
Anthony Parker	57	56	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.59	15	-17	32	15.5	15.8	-0.31	16.0	15.7	0.28
Mo Williams	35	33	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	3	-8	15.2	15.9	-0.69	17.1	15.3	1.84
Delonte West	54	52	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.08	-4	2	-6	15.7	15.6	0.12	16.1	15.6	0.45
Jawad Williams	32	32	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.04	-8	6	-14	15.3	15.8	-0.41	15.2	16.2	-1.03
Anderson Varejao	67	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	3	-8	15.7	15.5	0.13	16.3	15.1	1.19
Daniel Gibson	58	58	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-1	0	15.8	15.3	0.50	15.2	16.7	-1.47
LeBron James	91	88	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	3	-8	15.8	14.2	1.62	15.6	17.7	-2.05
Shaquille O'Neal	58	58	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.72	3	-5	8	16.0	15.1	0.90	15.7	16.0	-0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.23,0.21,0.27,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.57,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.65,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.27,0.46,0.38,0.46,0.33,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 106, LAL 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.52,0.4,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.46,0.55,0.36,0.45,0.26,0.54,0.39,0.28,0.16,0.01,0	90.1%
BOS 122, IND 117	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.36,0.38,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.72,0.57,0.41,0.54,0.39,0.37,0.24,0.16,0	89.8%
MIA 93, ATL 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.22,0.31,0.28,0.36,0.22,0.19,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.37,0.57,0.08,0	89.5%