NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	117		Excitement	7.4 [320]		MVP	Vince Carter (ORL): +80.4%
Orlando Magic	123		Comeback	12.3 [210]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -8.0%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.18,0.21	0.21	0.02	0.02	18	74%	0.21	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
David West	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.08	0.00	19	60%	0.24	3	-0.06	7	100%	0.03
Morris Peterson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.00	4	80%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gray	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	53%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Julian Wright	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.04	0.01	22	56%	0.08	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.04
Darius Songaila	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	-0.00	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.47,0.41,0.57,0.75,0.78,0.8	0.80	0.39	0.42	0.01	27	83%	0.85	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.11	0.01	13	64%	0.32	5	-0.15	13	69%	0.04
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.12	-0.04	0.04	9	75%	0.07	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	7	56%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.05	-0.01	7	47%	-0.04	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.03
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	8	25%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	3.4	31.4	20.5	24.3	3.4	42.2	152.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +34.3%

ORL +17.2%

ORL +8.5%

NOH -5.1%

NOH -4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	ORL	NBA	NOH	ORL	NBA
this game	16.0	13.4	15.3	120.6	124.2	106.0
season	15.5	15.4		106.0	110.1
opponent	15.9	15.2		101.9	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	15.4	15.1	16.3	17.3	16.0
ORL	12.8	13.7	13.7	13.5	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	16	17	0.27	-0.77	1.05	-0.02	10	-16	26	15.5	16.1	-0.59	13.5	13.4	0.13
Julian Wright	15	15	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.05	4	-10	14	17.0	15.8	1.20	15.5	13.0	2.49
Sean Marks	14	14	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.02	3	-9	12	14.4	16.3	-1.91	12.5	13.6	-1.08
Morris Peterson	43	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.07	-10	4	-14	16.0	16.0	-0.02	13.4	13.4	0.01
Emeka Okafor	17	18	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.13	-13	7	-20	17.1	15.8	1.30	14.6	13.2	1.45
James Posey	55	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.37	2	-8	10	15.9	16.1	-0.27	13.3	13.5	-0.20
Darius Songaila	55	56	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-6	6	16.8	15.0	1.79	13.9	12.8	1.16
Darren Collison	95	96	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.32	-8	2	-10	15.9	20.0	-4.09	13.4	15.7	-2.31
Peja Stojakovic	84	87	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.39	-8	2	-10	15.9	16.5	-0.63	13.1	15.5	-2.36
David West	91	92	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.35	-10	4	-14	15.7	19.8	-4.10	13.1	18.3	-5.23

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	77	77	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.24	19	-13	32	13.5	13.3	0.14	16.2	15.1	1.12
Rashard Lewis	74	75	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.38	12	-6	18	13.3	13.7	-0.40	16.2	15.3	0.93
Mickael Pietrus	40	38	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.46	7	-1	8	13.2	13.6	-0.38	16.0	16.0	-0.03
Dwight Howard	87	85	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.26	12	-6	18	13.5	12.8	0.67	16.3	13.5	2.84
Jason Williams	50	47	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.35	9	-3	12	12.9	14.0	-1.10	15.8	16.2	-0.43
Jameer Nelson	49	50	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	9	-12	14.0	12.9	1.10	16.2	15.8	0.43
JJ Redick	14	14	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	12	-18	11.6	13.7	-2.16	13.1	16.5	-3.41
Marcin Gortat	17	16	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.01	-6	12	-18	14.5	13.2	1.33	15.5	16.1	-0.59
Matt Barnes	65	62	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.18	-1	7	-8	13.7	12.8	0.91	16.3	15.4	0.97
Brandon Bass	22	21	-0.31	0.81	-1.13	0.07	-13	19	-32	13.1	13.5	-0.37	14.3	16.5	-2.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.21,0.25,0.33,0.12,0.09,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.3,0.2,0.17,0.08,0.22,0.35,0.46,0.45,0.79,0.84,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 99, MIA 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.1,0.14,0.2,0.28,0.19,0.24,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.48,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.46,0.47,0.63,0.86,0.84,1	92.0%
DET 75, IND 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.21,0.29,0.34,0.47,0.78,0.97,0.99,1	91.8%
PHI 82, LAL 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.26,0.16,0.1,0.07,0.15,0.31,0.2,0.47,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.91,1	91.7%