NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	117		Excitement	8.3 [184]		MVP	Corey Brewer (MIN): +27.3%
Dallas Mavericks	108		Comeback	3.3 [78]		LVP	Shawn Marion (DAL): -8.4%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Brewer	0.27	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.27,0.27	0.07	0.22	0.01	10	61%	0.38	1	-0.11	3	100%	0.06
Damien Wilkins	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.12	0.09	0.00	3	114%	0.21	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	9	60%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jonny Flynn	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.05	0.02	16	51%	0.09	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.01
Ramon Sessions	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	8	53%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	133%	0.10	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Al Jefferson	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.03	-0.00	11	62%	0.08	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Love	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.01	12	71%	0.13	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	12	54%	0.02	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.04	-0.02	10	77%	0.21	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Kidd	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.08	0.02	9	68%	0.20	5	-0.13	7	100%	0.10
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.05	-0.01	17	53%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	70%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.01	3	62%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.07
Josh Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	11	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,-0.02,-0.07	-0.07	0.04	-0.10	0.00	15	52%	-0.03	1	-0.04	10	90%	-0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	13	36%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.4	30.8	16.7	25.5	2.5	36.5	139.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +89.0%

DAL -13.9%

DAL -1.2%

DAL -25.8%

MIN +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DAL	NBA	MIN	DAL	NBA
this game	15.3	13.8	15.3	118.2	109.1	106.0
season	14.7	15.2		100.1	107.2
opponent	15.5	14.8		104.6	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.5	16.4	12.1	17.8	15.3
DAL	13.9	13.6	14.1	13.5	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	62	62	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.58	1	8	-7	15.6	14.7	0.94	12.9	15.3	-2.35
Wayne Ellington	38	38	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.15	15	-6	21	15.0	15.5	-0.43	14.3	13.5	0.75
Jonny Flynn	68	68	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.12	14	-5	19	15.1	15.8	-0.75	13.5	14.4	-0.90
Ryan Gomes	69	68	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.49	0	9	-9	15.0	16.0	-1.01	13.2	15.1	-1.84
Damien Wilkins	28	29	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.03	13	-4	17	14.6	15.6	-1.01	15.1	13.3	1.80
Corey Brewer	67	66	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.18	-3	12	-15	15.9	14.0	1.91	13.4	14.6	-1.21
Ramon Sessions	37	38	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.10	-1	10	-11	15.7	15.0	0.70	14.1	13.6	0.54
Ryan Hollins	69	69	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.27	9	0	9	15.2	15.5	-0.30	14.8	11.6	3.15
Al Jefferson	57	57	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	-0.20	-3	12	-15	15.2	15.4	-0.24	13.9	13.6	0.27

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quinton Ross	6	6	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.01	0	-9	9	20.5	13.4	7.13	16.5	15.2	1.28
Drew Gooden	37	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-7	5	13.5	14.0	-0.41	14.9	15.6	-0.69
Rodrigue Beaubois	49	49	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.23	4	-13	17	13.4	14.2	-0.85	16.1	14.5	1.52
Josh Howard	41	41	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-6	3	13.7	13.8	-0.11	15.0	15.5	-0.58
Dirk Nowitzki	79	79	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-11	13	13.2	16.1	-2.88	15.0	16.6	-1.64
Erick Dampier	59	59	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	-4	-1	14.0	13.5	0.42	15.9	14.4	1.46
Jason Kidd	76	78	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.22	-9	0	-9	13.2	15.7	-2.42	15.3	15.3	-0.05
Jason Terry	82	81	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.16	-12	3	-15	13.7	14.4	-0.74	15.5	14.6	0.90
Shawn Marion	66	64	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	0.01	-20	11	-31	15.0	11.3	3.74	14.7	16.3	-1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.58,0.58,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.29,0.24,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.17,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.45,0.45,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 113, LAC 109	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.34,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.07,0.13,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.22,0.15,0.02,0	91.1%
CLE 121, ATL 114	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.58,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.26,0.16,0.21,0.29,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.1,0.26,0.22,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.32,0.01,0	90.8%
MIA 101, MIL 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.12,0.17,0.23,0.13,0.19,0.09,0.03,0.16,0.1,0.01,0	90.3%