NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	101		Excitement	5.8 [692]		MVP	Damon Jones (MIA): +16.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	96		Comeback	1.6 [442]		LVP	Michael Redd (MIL): -20.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.05	0.01	9	85%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Doleac	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	57%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	8	71%	0.09	1	-0.04	12	100%	0.07
Rasual Butler	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.05	0.01	13	50%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	13	58%	0.08	4	-0.12	5	80%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	-0.05	-0.03	0.04	9	28%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.18	-0.04	-0.05	15	42%	-0.04	5	-0.12	10	70%	-0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	11	63%	0.06	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.03
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.11	-0.02	0.05	8	87%	0.09	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	0.02	0.05	9	70%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	9	55%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	7	61%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	8	12%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.12	-0.08	-0.01	9	33%	-0.13	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.17,-0.14,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.08	-0.09	0.03	16	44%	-0.10	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.3	28.5	1.0	31.5	2.4	36.5	127.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.6%

MIA +7.3%

MIA +9.0%

MIL -3.2%

MIL -7.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	15.2	15.8	15.5	108.6	103.2	104.0
season	15.7	16.0		107.9	104.4
opponent	15.0	15.5		107.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	18.1	15.1	13.7	15.2
MIL	16.1	17.0	15.5	14.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	82	82	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.30	13	-8	21	14.8	18.0	-3.16	16.0	13.9	2.09
Damon Jones	72	71	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.18	16	-11	27	14.5	17.6	-3.11	15.8	15.5	0.27
Dwyane Wade	82	82	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.24	11	-6	17	14.7	19.3	-4.60	15.8	15.6	0.13
Shaquille O'Neal	40	42	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.01	9	-4	13	16.5	14.2	2.34	16.0	15.5	0.54
Rasual Butler	47	46	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.36	-4	9	-13	15.0	15.4	-0.43	15.5	16.0	-0.59
Eddie Jones	61	62	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.20	0	5	-5	15.2	15.2	0.04	15.3	16.6	-1.34
Michael Doleac	38	37	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.16	1	4	-3	15.1	15.3	-0.19	15.8	15.7	0.14
Christian Laettner	14	13	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	9	-13	15.8	15.1	0.67	16.9	15.6	1.36
Shandon Anderson	8	8	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.04	-6	11	-17	18.6	14.9	3.73	14.4	15.9	-1.51
Keyon Dooling	21	22	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.17	-11	16	-27	17.6	14.5	3.11	15.5	15.8	-0.27

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike James	37	36	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.30	15	-20	35	15.5	15.9	-0.35	17.2	14.0	3.23
Erick Strickland	43	42	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.20	7	-12	19	17.2	14.5	2.62	17.0	13.7	3.30
Kendall Gill	54	53	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.44	13	-18	31	15.7	15.9	-0.21	15.8	14.4	1.43
Dan Gadzuric	22	23	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.07	-6	1	-7	14.8	16.1	-1.28	16.1	14.9	1.22
Zaza Pachulia	51	51	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.25	1	-6	7	16.3	15.1	1.20	16.0	14.3	1.65
Michael Redd	60	60	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.17	-8	3	-11	15.2	16.8	-1.65	14.2	17.0	-2.81
Joe Smith	59	59	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.10	-14	9	-23	15.5	16.2	-0.67	14.2	17.0	-2.77
Mo Williams	58	59	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.11	-18	13	-31	15.6	16.1	-0.53	13.6	18.1	-4.48
Desmond Mason	81	82	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.27	-15	10	-25	15.8	15.2	0.67	14.9	17.3	-2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.12,0.17,0.23,0.13,0.19,0.09,0.03,0.16,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 95, MIA 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.35,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.27,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0	93.8%
HOU 113, LAC 109	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.34,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.07,0.13,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.22,0.15,0.02,0	93.6%
HOU 83, NOH 74	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.64,0.64,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.16,0.13,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0,0,0	93.3%