NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	105		Excitement	9.1 [111]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (TOR): +45.2%
Toronto Raptors	106		Comeback	15.1 [58]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -23.5%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Farmar	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.12	0.14	0.00	11	77%	0.30	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bynum	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.04	-0.00	15	64%	0.18	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Pau Gasol	0.04	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	23	46%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Derek Fisher	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Vujacic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	8	31%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	6	33%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.23	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.23	0.00	-0.22	0.02	24	52%	-0.12	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.04

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.45	0.45	0.02	0.43	0.00	6	50%	0.45	0	0.00	6	100%	0.22
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.10	0.09	-0.00	5	100%	0.32	3	-0.12	5	80%	-0.01
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.25,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	17	54%	0.18	1	-0.07	7	100%	0.08
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.01	14	60%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	70%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	6	42%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	12	36%	-0.05	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.08	0.01	17	53%	0.02	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.3	28.6	16.8	23.2	2.6	36.2	133.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +0.2%

TOR +61.8%

LAL -19.8%

TOR +3.4%

TOR +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	TOR	NBA	LAL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	14.9	15.3	109.4	111.6	106.0
season	15.7	15.0		107.9	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.1		111.5	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.6	16.9	13.4	16.3	15.3
TOR	13.6	13.8	16.6	15.6	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Bynum	77	77	0.36	-0.86	1.22	0.13	8	-9	17	15.6	13.9	1.65	15.1	13.9	1.16
Derek Fisher	51	51	0.18	-0.68	0.85	0.09	3	-4	7	15.0	15.6	-0.58	15.2	14.5	0.72
Shannon Brown	34	32	0.08	-0.58	0.65	0.05	1	-2	3	16.7	14.5	2.27	15.7	14.5	1.21
Sasha Vujacic	3	2	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-2	3	19.3	15.1	4.19	12.0	14.9	-2.95
Luke Walton	21	19	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-1	1	16.9	14.8	2.03	14.1	15.1	-0.97
Kobe Bryant	80	81	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.42	2	-3	5	15.0	16.6	-1.55	15.0	14.1	0.87
Pau Gasol	80	79	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-1	1	15.2	15.5	-0.27	15.2	13.2	2.04
Metta World Peace	58	58	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.38	-5	4	-9	13.9	17.3	-3.34	14.5	15.5	-0.94
Jordan Farmar	42	42	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.56	-5	4	-9	15.3	15.2	0.07	14.6	15.1	-0.48
Lamar Odom	34	34	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.50	-10	9	-19	15.1	15.4	-0.33	13.6	15.6	-2.02

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarrett Jack	64	65	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.66	1	0	1	15.0	14.6	0.40	14.7	16.5	-1.89
Marco Belinelli	44	47	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.32	9	-8	17	14.4	15.3	-0.89	16.0	14.6	1.39
Antoine Wright	22	22	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.36	4	-3	7	15.0	14.8	0.15	15.2	15.3	-0.12
Andrea Bargnani	76	77	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.54	-4	5	-9	15.3	13.4	1.89	15.2	15.5	-0.32
Amir Johnson	35	37	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	-8	17	12.9	16.1	-3.21	14.4	15.8	-1.50
Chris Bosh	73	73	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.36	-2	3	-5	15.3	13.4	1.98	15.5	14.6	0.93
Hedo Turkoglu	74	74	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.24	-3	4	-7	14.8	15.2	-0.45	15.3	15.2	0.12
Rasho Nesterovic	6	5	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	2	-3	16.3	14.8	1.55	19.8	15.0	4.78
Jose Calderon	31	31	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.19	0	1	-1	14.6	15.0	-0.40	16.5	14.7	1.89
DeMar DeRozan	50	49	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.02	-8	9	-17	15.4	14.3	1.09	14.6	16.0	-1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.36,0.43,0.31,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.47,0.22,0.22,0.37,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 98, ATL 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.21,0.37,0.41,0.54,0.39,0.53,0.28,0.1,0.15,1	91.7%
SAS 85, SEA 88	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.29,0.28,0.38,0.48,0.43,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.27,0.25,0.46,0.32,0.58,1	90.4%
BKN 93, ORL 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.53,0.67,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.53,0.36,0.24,0.42,1	90.0%