NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	104		Excitement	6.5 [482]		MVP	Brad Miller (CHI): +33.9%
Houston Rockets	97		Comeback	1.0 [404]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (HOU): -10.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0.34	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.4,0.34,0.34	0.18	0.15	-0.01	14	76%	0.36	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
John Salmons	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.04	-0.01	8	75%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.1	0.01	0.09	-0.01	14	56%	0.17	4	-0.07	8	75%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0	0.07	-0.06	0.00	8	73%	0.06	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.11
Jannero Pargo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	13	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tyrus Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Luol Deng	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	10	52%	0.03	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
James Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.02	-0.00	8	75%	0.14	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.02	0.03	14	65%	0.16	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Luis Scola	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	16	51%	0.05	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
David Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	60%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.01	-0.03	14	27%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	-0.01	19	51%	0.04	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	6	36%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.8	31.0	15.7	26.4	1.8	39.2	142.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +55.1%

HOU -8.7%

CHI +4.3%

HOU -2.7%

CHI +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	HOU	NBA	CHI	HOU	NBA
this game	16.5	15.7	15.3	116.9	107.8	106.0
season	14.7	15.0		101.9	106.0
opponent	15.1	15.7		106.1	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.4	17.6	17.2	18.4	16.5
HOU	15.4	15.9	17.0	14.4	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	77	78	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.39	19	-12	31	16.8	14.5	2.34	16.1	12.7	3.45
Derrick Rose	67	68	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.23	11	-4	15	16.0	18.3	-2.32	15.8	15.2	0.57
Brad Miller	47	50	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.29	0	7	-7	16.3	16.8	-0.58	15.8	15.5	0.24
Luol Deng	66	68	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.19	3	4	-1	15.9	18.3	-2.40	16.4	13.4	3.03
Kirk Hinrich	70	70	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.30	-1	8	-9	16.1	18.1	-2.01	15.5	16.3	-0.83
John Salmons	59	60	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.08	1	6	-5	17.8	13.9	3.91	15.0	17.0	-2.07
Tyrus Thomas	45	42	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	4	-1	16.7	16.4	0.33	15.2	16.0	-0.83
James Johnson	14	14	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	8	-9	17.4	16.4	1.07	13.6	16.0	-2.38

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Andersen	11	11	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-8	9	14.0	15.9	-1.89	15.6	16.7	-1.02
Charles Hayes	17	17	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.03	-3	-4	1	18.3	15.0	3.25	15.6	16.7	-1.09
Shane Battier	46	46	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	-3	-1	16.4	14.9	1.50	14.3	18.9	-4.65
Kyle Lowry	46	47	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-4	1	16.0	15.2	0.79	17.8	15.1	2.67
Luis Scola	73	72	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.20	-3	-4	1	15.8	14.8	1.03	17.0	14.5	2.47
Chase Budinger	51	51	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.27	-3	-4	1	14.8	16.7	-1.87	17.6	15.0	2.62
Trevor Ariza	73	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.26	-6	-1	-5	15.7	15.5	0.16	16.3	17.6	-1.38
Aaron Brooks	60	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.14	-10	3	-13	15.5	15.9	-0.42	16.2	17.1	-0.88
Carl Landry	73	72	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.33	-4	-3	-1	15.0	18.3	-3.25	16.7	15.6	1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.39,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.34,0.36,0.28,0.24,0.16,0.2,0.12,0.2,0.12,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.15,0.04,0.14,0.05,0.02,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 95, PHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0	93.8%
SAS 111, PHI 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.32,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.21,0.22,0.32,0.22,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.07,0.01,0,0	93.6%
LAC 90, SEA 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.04,0	92.8%