NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	94		Excitement	7.1 [376]		MVP	Damien Wilkins (MIN): +14.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	92		Comeback	1.8 [802]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -28.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.05	0.01	18	66%	0.23	4	-0.09	11	100%	0.07
James Harden	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	11	55%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	5	58%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Maynor	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	70%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	13	50%	0.15	4	-0.17	4	75%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.29	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.22,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.29	-0.18	-0.11	0.01	10	37%	-0.01	7	-0.28	4	75%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.03	0.01	8	79%	0.14	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Nathan Jawai	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.08	-0.10	0.02	17	66%	0.10	3	-0.14	4	75%	-0.00
Jonny Flynn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.03	-0.01	13	36%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06	-0.06	0.04	-0.08	0.03	17	59%	0.03	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	9	26%	-0.06	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	2.4	29.5	15.4	24.5	2.6	38.2	135.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +41.4%

OKC +3.3%

OKC +19.8%

MIN -17.8%

OKC +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIN	NBA	OKC	MIN	NBA
this game	15.2	16.1	15.3	101.1	101.1	106.0
season	15.0	14.7		106.2	100.1
opponent	14.8	15.5		109.8	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.2	13.5	17.6	17.1	15.2
MIN	16.2	15.3	16.7	16.3	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	78	77	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.46	6	-4	10	14.9	16.5	-1.60	16.3	15.4	0.90
Thabo Sefolosha	61	59	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.51	-3	5	-8	15.6	14.5	1.11	16.3	15.8	0.43
Serge Ibaka	42	42	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.36	2	0	2	15.1	15.3	-0.22	16.5	15.8	0.70
Jeff Green	88	85	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.44	-3	5	-8	15.1	17.2	-2.12	15.8	21.2	-5.40
Eric Maynor	32	32	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.02	9	-7	16	15.1	15.3	-0.20	16.4	15.9	0.49
James Harden	50	48	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	-3	8	15.0	15.4	-0.46	16.2	16.0	0.14
Nenad Krstic	48	48	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.00	6	-4	10	15.3	15.1	0.20	15.8	16.5	-0.65
Russell Westbrook	66	64	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.38	-12	14	-26	15.5	14.4	1.16	16.1	16.3	-0.20

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nathan Jawai	14	15	0.12	-0.61	0.73	-0.00	4	-6	10	17.6	15.9	1.71	14.1	15.4	-1.34
Damien Wilkins	49	49	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-1	0	16.2	16.1	0.09	14.7	15.7	-1.01
Sasha Pavlovic	17	17	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-1	0	15.7	16.2	-0.51	14.4	15.4	-0.96
Ramon Sessions	33	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-1	0	16.1	16.1	0.00	14.3	15.7	-1.37
Ryan Hollins	7	6	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	3	-8	17.9	16.0	1.88	16.3	15.1	1.22
Ryan Gomes	61	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.36	4	-6	10	15.5	17.4	-1.91	15.6	14.4	1.25
Brian Cardinal	30	32	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	4	-10	17.4	15.5	1.91	14.4	15.6	-1.25
Wayne Ellington	18	17	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	-9	7	-16	17.7	15.7	2.00	13.8	15.5	-1.75
Jonny Flynn	59	59	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.34	-1	-1	0	15.9	16.4	-0.49	15.7	14.3	1.37
Corey Brewer	77	81	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.45	1	-3	4	15.8	18.1	-2.39	15.4	13.7	1.75
Al Jefferson	69	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.45	-1	-1	0	15.8	17.1	-1.34	15.3	14.7	0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.41,0.38,0.27,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.4,0.47,0.31,0.22,0.03,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 99, WAS 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.28,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.16,0.01,0	92.1%
NJN 102, VAN 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.35,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.21,0.28,0.23,0.36,0.41,0.27,0.2,0.04,0.02,0,0	92.0%
DAL 93, LAC 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.25,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.34,0.47,0.36,0.11,0.02,0	91.7%