NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	65		Excitement	2.0 [1294]		MVP	Stephen Jackson (CHA): +8.6%
Charlotte Bobcats	104		Comeback	1.2 [891]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -9.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	5	27%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	4	0%	-0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	75%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	40%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	6	29%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	6	33%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.09	0.00	-0.08	6	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.00	8	75%	-0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.04	11	64%	0.02	3	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.10	0.00	-0.07	6	23%	-0.02	3	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	0.02	11	27%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	0.01	-0.01	16	40%	-0.04	4	-0.06	8	50%	-0.02

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.00	0.03	10	75%	0.14	4	-0.06	12	83%	0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.00	0.02	8	82%	0.08	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.00	9	62%	0.07	2	-0.01	8	50%	-0.01
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.13	-0.00	0.10	11	67%	0.02	0	0.00	8	100%	0.00
Derrick Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	5	33%	0.01	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Stephen Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	5	60%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	6	29%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.10	0.00	-0.10	4	18%	-0.01	2	0.01	3	67%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	75%	0.01	4	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	6	38%	-0.02	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	34.1	2.4	29.5	15.5	27.3	2.7	29.0	140.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +38.5%

CHA +5.9%

CHA +6.3%

MIA -2.0%

CHA +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	16.0	16.0	15.3	71.4	116.9	106.0
season	16.2	16.2		104.4	103.0
opponent	15.4	15.4		101.8	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.4	16.8	15.8	17.4	16.0
CHA	13.8	13.8	17.6	19.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Arroyo	21	20	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.15	-5	-34	29	17.1	15.7	1.44	18.5	15.2	3.33
Jamaal Magloire	28	28	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.43	-15	-24	9	16.9	15.7	1.24	18.7	14.7	4.06
Rafer Alston	45	45	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.28	-13	-26	13	16.2	15.8	0.37	15.5	16.5	-0.97
Daequan Cook	26	25	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.15	-9	-30	21	17.5	15.5	2.00	18.5	15.0	3.55
Joel Anthony	19	18	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.06	-6	-33	27	12.7	16.9	-4.23	17.2	15.6	1.57
Dorell Wright	53	50	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.35	-17	-22	5	17.2	14.5	2.68	16.1	15.8	0.31
Jermaine O'Neal	45	44	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	-26	13	16.4	15.7	0.68	14.5	17.4	-2.94
Michael Beasley	50	49	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.20	-17	-22	5	16.8	15.1	1.75	14.8	17.4	-2.56
Udonis Haslem	39	38	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.48	-27	-12	-15	16.1	16.0	0.03	16.4	15.6	0.84
Quentin Richardson	32	32	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.29	-22	-17	-5	14.1	17.1	-3.04	14.0	17.1	-3.07
Dwyane Wade	62	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.43	-27	-12	-15	15.5	17.3	-1.82	15.3	17.4	-2.12
Mario Chalmers	35	34	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.30	-24	-15	-9	14.7	16.8	-2.10	16.1	15.9	0.24

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	58	58	0.52	-0.02	0.55	-0.50	35	4	31	14.9	17.9	-2.92	15.8	16.5	-0.71
Gerald Wallace	70	72	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.66	39	0	39	15.0	19.4	-4.39	15.7	17.3	-1.62
Raymond Felton	53	52	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.47	31	8	23	14.7	17.8	-3.09	15.7	16.5	-0.84
Stephen Jackson	65	65	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.38	27	12	15	14.9	18.7	-3.81	15.4	17.7	-2.27
Nazr Mohammed	32	33	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.15	14	25	-11	15.1	16.5	-1.41	16.7	15.6	1.09
Ronald Murray	28	30	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.13	9	30	-21	15.1	16.3	-1.20	16.5	15.8	0.70
DeSagana Diop	30	30	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.18	10	29	-19	16.4	15.8	0.60	16.3	15.9	0.45
Derrick Brown	27	30	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.33	14	25	-11	18.7	14.8	3.98	16.7	15.7	0.95
D.J. Augustin	36	39	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.17	8	31	-23	17.8	14.7	3.09	16.5	15.7	0.84
Stephen Graham	18	18	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	36	-33	19.8	15.0	4.78	17.1	15.8	1.27
Gerald Henderson	15	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	37	-35	18.9	15.4	3.49	17.1	15.8	1.32
Acie Law	13	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	36	-33	19.4	15.4	4.00	14.6	16.3	-1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 97, CLE 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.62,0.68,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	97.9%
CHI 74, MIN 127	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.83,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.8%
CLE 76, POR 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.8%