NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	76		Excitement	4.8 [833]		MVP	Boris Diaw (CHA): +17.4%
Charlotte Bobcats	92		Comeback	2.0 [656]		LVP	Keith Bogans (SAS): -12.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ian Mahinmi	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Haislip	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	4	25%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	65%	0.08	4	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Richard Jefferson	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	7	53%	0.04	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	10	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
George Hill	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	0.04	11	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	11	46%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
DeJuan Blair	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	0.04	10	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	12	37%	-0.04	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Keith Bogans	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	7	14%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.21	0.04	0.09	14	87%	0.20	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	0.01	0.04	14	68%	0.12	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Derrick Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	13	34%	-0.02	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	7	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Stephen Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	0.04	14	47%	-0.00	3	-0.08	6	33%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.7	2.4	33.4	15.4	27.8	1.0	28.0	129.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +41.0%

CHA +3.7%

SAS -2.4%

CHA +9.4%

SAS -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHA	NBA	SAS	CHA	NBA
this game	16.1	17.1	15.3	86.4	107.0	106.0
season	15.9	16.2		108.2	103.0
opponent	15.4	15.1		101.8	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.2	17.8	18.0	15.6	16.1
CHA	16.8	17.4	16.2	18.0	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Theo Ratliff	9	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.03	-1	-15	14	14.6	16.2	-1.67	22.7	16.5	6.28
Ian Mahinmi	9	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.03	-1	-15	14	14.6	16.2	-1.67	22.7	16.5	6.28
Antonio McDyess	6	7	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	-14	12	14.7	16.2	-1.49	16.7	17.1	-0.37
Richard Jefferson	47	45	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-16	16	16.3	15.8	0.43	16.1	18.1	-2.03
Marcus Haislip	16	16	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-13	10	14.1	16.5	-2.44	20.2	16.3	3.84
Keith Bogans	42	41	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.01	-6	-10	4	15.5	16.5	-0.97	16.5	17.6	-1.09
Tim Duncan	59	60	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.05	-5	-11	6	15.9	16.4	-0.53	17.2	16.6	0.63
Tony Parker	54	55	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.01	-9	-7	-2	16.4	15.5	0.86	17.0	17.1	-0.11
Roger Mason Jr.	37	34	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.01	-12	-4	-8	16.9	15.4	1.53	16.9	17.2	-0.34
DeJuan Blair	60	57	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	-3	-10	16.0	16.2	-0.23	16.6	17.9	-1.21
Manu Ginobili	51	50	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.16	-9	-7	-2	16.2	15.9	0.33	17.0	17.2	-0.23
George Hill	50	49	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.02	-19	3	-22	16.8	15.1	1.67	16.1	18.3	-2.17

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Wallace	77	77	0.60	-0.10	0.71	-0.04	22	-6	28	17.0	17.9	-0.93	16.7	11.7	4.95
Boris Diaw	67	69	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.12	22	-6	28	16.8	17.9	-1.14	16.1	16.1	0.01
Ronald Murray	45	47	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.01	14	2	12	17.2	16.9	0.25	16.7	15.3	1.34
Stephen Jackson	61	62	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.01	13	3	10	17.7	15.4	2.34	16.2	15.6	0.63
Raymond Felton	53	52	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.10	12	4	8	17.3	16.7	0.54	16.9	14.8	2.07
D.J. Augustin	30	33	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.07	6	10	-4	16.4	17.4	-1.01	15.3	16.5	-1.21
Stephen Graham	22	24	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.05	2	14	-12	16.2	17.4	-1.18	14.2	16.7	-2.54
Nazr Mohammed	43	41	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.00	3	13	-10	17.4	16.7	0.72	15.5	16.5	-1.02
DeSagana Diop	12	14	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.14	-4	20	-24	15.1	17.4	-2.30	17.1	15.9	1.21
Gerald Henderson	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	18	-20	20.0	17.0	3.05	9.7	16.3	-6.62
Acie Law	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	18	-20	20.0	17.0	3.05	9.7	16.3	-6.62
Derrick Brown	14	15	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.06	-6	22	-28	16.8	17.1	-0.33	14.9	16.3	-1.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 87, UTA 98	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1	95.7%
ORL 96, BOS 117	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.87,0.95,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
NYK 94, BOS 115	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.81,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%