NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	109		Excitement	8.7 [152]		MVP	O.J. Mayo (MEM): +46.2%
Portland Trail Blazers	105		Comeback	16.5 [72]		LVP	Mike Conley (MEM): -19.1%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0.46	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.23,0.23,0.46	0.16	0.30	-0.00	18	66%	0.46	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.08
Zach Randolph	0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.14	0.05	0.02	16	67%	0.23	1	-0.05	8	87%	-0.01
Sam Young	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	9	58%	0.16	2	-0.10	13	46%	-0.09
Hasheem Thabeet	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.07	-0.03	18	42%	-0.02	2	-0.07	7	71%	-0.01
Mike Conley	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.08	-0.10	0.01	8	41%	-0.06	4	-0.13	1	0%	-0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.22,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.14	0.14	0.15	-0.01	0.01	15	70%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	8	55%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23,0	0.00	0.09	-0.14	-0.05	18	59%	0.27	2	-0.26	10	80%	0.01
Andre Miller	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	11	67%	0.12	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	-0.00	10	54%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.15
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	12	50%	0.05	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.8	31.0	16.0	29.2	2.3	44.5	147.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +14.6%

MEM +4.5%

MEM +16.2%

MEM +11.2%

MEM +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	POR	NBA	MEM	POR	NBA
this game	15.7	17.2	15.3	125.3	119.3	106.0
season	15.4	16.7		106.8	108.8
opponent	15.6	15.0		106.3	108.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.8	15.8	15.6	15.5	15.7
POR	16.9	16.2	18.7	17.2	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Gasol	76	77	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.43	12	-8	20	15.4	17.5	-2.01	17.9	12.4	5.53
O.J. Mayo	71	71	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.28	17	-13	30	15.5	16.8	-1.36	18.0	13.9	4.04
Zach Randolph	73	74	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.21	15	-11	26	15.5	16.6	-1.12	17.5	15.6	1.94
Mike Conley	49	50	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.34	6	-2	8	15.4	16.0	-0.58	18.4	15.7	2.68
Rudy Gay	74	75	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.31	3	1	2	15.7	15.8	-0.08	17.2	17.4	-0.21
Jamaal Tinsley	38	38	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	6	-8	16.0	15.4	0.58	15.7	18.4	-2.68
Hasheem Thabeet	21	20	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	0.08	-13	17	-30	16.7	15.4	1.34	14.6	18.0	-3.37
Sam Young	33	35	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.22	-18	22	-40	16.6	15.1	1.46	15.0	18.7	-3.66

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Ayres	46	44	0.43	-0.93	1.36	0.05	13	-17	30	15.9	18.6	-2.71	17.1	14.3	2.86
Jerryd Bayless	55	53	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.42	7	-11	18	16.5	18.5	-2.00	16.0	15.2	0.81
Martell Webster	73	72	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.31	-1	-3	2	17.5	15.8	1.69	15.6	16.1	-0.44
Andre Miller	59	57	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.20	-11	7	-18	16.8	18.1	-1.34	15.2	16.7	-1.47
Brandon Roy	79	80	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.31	-9	5	-14	17.4	15.2	2.21	15.7	15.1	0.61
Juwan Howard	52	54	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.26	-11	7	-18	18.5	15.3	3.21	15.8	15.6	0.20
LaMarcus Aldridge	76	75	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.47	-8	4	-12	17.5	15.6	1.88	15.0	20.1	-5.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.66,0.69,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.38,0.3,0.22,0.28,0.19,0.26,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.83,0.83,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 110, MIA 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.69,0.66,0.81,0.85,0.71,0.73,0	90.3%
CHI 88, NYK 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.84,0	89.4%
PHX 100, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.41,0.52,0.41,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.53,0.78,0.53,0.63,0.85,0.74,0	89.0%