NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	78		Excitement	3.3 [1104]		MVP	Michael Beasley (MIA): +8.7%
San Antonio Spurs	108		Comeback	1.6 [1057]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -19.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Beasley	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.00	0.00	21	59%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.07	6	50%	0.02	3	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	67%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	9	28%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	62%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.18,-0.19,-0.21,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.20	-0.02	-0.03	18	38%	-0.07	7	-0.13	6	50%	-0.03

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.15	-0.01	0.05	13	79%	0.14	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	59%	0.07	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	13	60%	0.07	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	12	60%	0.07	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.01	-0.03	12	50%	0.04	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	2	83%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	8	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	1	0%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Haislip	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	125%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Hairston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	1	0%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	50%	-0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	0.03	3	67%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	3.0	33.2	19.7	29.2	2.7	29.0	142.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +14.2%

SAS +18.6%

SAS +8.7%

SAS +4.5%

SAS +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	14.5	15.5	15.3	81.2	112.5	106.0
season	16.2	15.9		104.4	108.2
opponent	15.1	15.4		103.4	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	15.8	13.0	14.9	14.5
SAS	14.9	15.5	14.2	17.8	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Magloire	16	16	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-34	38	15.2	14.3	0.94	19.5	14.7	4.76
Daequan Cook	44	43	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.40	-19	-11	-8	15.5	13.6	1.90	16.6	14.7	1.90
Dorell Wright	38	36	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.25	-14	-16	2	15.3	13.9	1.40	16.8	14.8	2.04
Jermaine O'Neal	33	34	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	-26	22	14.1	14.7	-0.62	14.2	16.2	-2.01
Mario Chalmers	48	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.25	-14	-16	2	14.4	14.5	-0.06	17.0	14.2	2.79
Joel Anthony	34	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.19	-13	-17	4	13.9	14.8	-0.91	15.2	15.7	-0.47
Udonis Haslem	29	28	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.61	-30	0	-30	14.6	14.4	0.17	14.4	16.0	-1.61
Quentin Richardson	49	52	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.10	-6	-24	18	14.1	14.9	-0.83	15.1	16.0	-0.95
Carlos Arroyo	48	48	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.16	-18	-12	-6	14.5	14.4	0.06	13.9	17.2	-3.35
Michael Beasley	80	82	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.12	-17	-13	-4	14.7	13.4	1.31	15.8	13.9	1.88
Dwyane Wade	61	62	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.17	-19	-11	-8	13.5	16.1	-2.59	14.6	17.1	-2.50

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	59	59	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.15	19	11	8	14.5	17.2	-2.70	14.1	15.1	-1.00
Tony Parker	53	52	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.12	18	12	6	14.7	16.6	-1.90	14.4	14.5	-0.06
DeJuan Blair	51	51	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.41	27	3	24	15.9	15.1	0.75	15.1	13.8	1.34
Manu Ginobili	48	50	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.54	31	-1	32	14.9	16.2	-1.31	14.6	14.3	0.32
Keith Bogans	42	43	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.02	12	18	-6	13.8	16.9	-3.06	14.1	14.7	-0.60
Richard Jefferson	55	52	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.09	7	23	-16	14.7	16.7	-2.01	14.3	14.7	-0.44
George Hill	54	53	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.36	18	12	6	16.9	13.8	3.06	14.7	14.1	0.60
Roger Mason Jr.	38	40	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.28	13	17	-4	16.8	14.7	2.17	14.7	14.3	0.40
Antonio McDyess	32	32	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.45	17	13	4	13.2	16.7	-3.42	12.8	15.3	-2.44
Theo Ratliff	16	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	34	-38	19.5	14.7	4.76	15.2	14.3	0.94
Marcus Haislip	16	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	34	-38	19.5	14.7	4.76	15.2	14.3	0.94
Malik Hairston	16	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	34	-38	19.5	14.7	4.76	15.2	14.3	0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 74, DET 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%
NYK 74, ATL 78	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.97,1,1	97.0%
IND 73, DET 98	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.88,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%