NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	7.4 [303]		MVP	David West (NOH): +29.0%
New Orleans Hornets	95		Comeback	1.4 [675]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -16.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quentin Richardson	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.19	0.02	0.15	-0.02	14	50%	0.22	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.07,0.02,0.12,0.12	-0.01	0.13	0.00	10	46%	0.14	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.03
Carlos Arroyo	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	10	55%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.01	8	52%	0.00	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16	-0.04	-0.10	0.01	10	45%	-0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Daequan Cook	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.16	-0.00	-0.14	0.02	6	42%	-0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.17,-0.17	-0.02	-0.14	0.01	13	61%	-0.02	6	-0.15	10	70%	0.02

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David West	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.29	0.29	0.01	0.28	0.00	17	52%	0.35	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.05
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.11,0.2,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.08	0.18	-0.01	12	67%	0.34	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.05
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.00	0.01	7	73%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.01	10	58%	0.07	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	10	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	3	33%	-0.00	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.18,-0.16	-0.16	0.03	-0.15	0.03	11	57%	0.01	2	-0.16	6	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	2.7	26.0	15.7	25.4	2.7	40.9	141.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +52.6%

NOH +10.4%

MIA -7.8%

MIA -8.2%

NOH +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NOH	NBA	MIA	NOH	NBA
this game	15.1	16.7	15.3	100.0	105.6	106.0
season	16.2	15.5		104.4	106.0
opponent	15.2	15.4		108.3	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	15.3	16.9	13.2	15.1
NOH	19.0	15.3	16.6	16.1	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	4	3	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.01	-4	0	-4	17.5	15.0	2.47	15.7	16.7	-1.06
Michael Beasley	47	45	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.11	-1	-3	2	15.9	14.4	1.46	16.8	16.6	0.22
Mario Chalmers	35	35	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.08	-3	-1	-2	13.8	16.0	-2.18	17.2	16.4	0.79
Carlos Arroyo	46	44	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-1	-2	17.0	13.3	3.71	17.4	16.0	1.36
Daequan Cook	38	38	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.36	6	-10	16	14.0	16.0	-2.01	16.6	16.8	-0.24
Dorell Wright	18	17	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.08	-9	5	-14	14.1	15.4	-1.29	16.1	16.8	-0.70
Dwyane Wade	71	72	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.40	5	-9	14	15.4	14.3	1.02	16.4	17.8	-1.36
Jermaine O'Neal	72	72	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.38	3	-7	10	15.4	14.0	1.44	17.3	14.2	3.15
Udonis Haslem	58	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	0	-4	14.2	16.8	-2.68	16.2	17.7	-1.51
Quentin Richardson	66	65	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.28	-10	6	-16	15.2	15.1	0.09	16.2	17.9	-1.65

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peja Stojakovic	54	54	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.20	14	-10	24	17.6	15.3	2.26	15.6	14.5	1.06
Emeka Okafor	63	65	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.24	12	-8	20	17.6	14.6	3.05	15.6	14.0	1.55
Chris Paul	66	68	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.29	10	-6	16	16.8	16.2	0.60	16.0	12.7	3.33
Devin Brown	58	58	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.30	5	-1	6	17.1	15.9	1.17	15.8	14.0	1.79
David West	74	74	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.35	-1	5	-6	17.1	14.7	2.43	15.3	14.6	0.68
Julian Wright	13	13	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	3	-2	14.9	17.0	-2.06	15.0	15.2	-0.17
Marcus Thornton	32	33	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.08	-1	5	-6	15.9	17.1	-1.17	14.0	15.8	-1.79
Darius Songaila	30	30	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	8	-12	14.5	17.8	-3.33	13.9	15.7	-1.80
Darren Collison	24	23	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.09	-6	10	-16	16.2	16.8	-0.60	12.7	16.0	-3.33
James Posey	36	37	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.19	-10	14	-24	15.3	17.6	-2.26	14.5	15.6	-1.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.72,0.86,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.83,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.72,0.81,0.64,0.67,0.69,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 92, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.75,0.77,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.71,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.8,0.78,0.76,0.73,1	92.6%
ATL 108, NYK 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.86,0.86,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.84,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.67,0.83,1	92.5%
CHA 99, NYK 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.9,0.84,1	92.4%