NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	102		Excitement	4.3 [936]		MVP	Tyreke Evans (SAC): +26.1%
Chicago Bulls	98		Comeback	262.2 [1]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -15.9%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyreke Evans	0.26	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,0.09,0.21,0.26	-0.01	0.27	-0.01	19	49%	0.30	3	-0.04	9	67%	-0.08
Beno Udrih	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05	0.09	0.01	0.05	11	64%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Kenny Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Brockman	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	0.00	0.06	6	71%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Donte Greene	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	0.00	0.07	6	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Spencer Hawes	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.00	-0.07	6	43%	0.02	4	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Omri Casspi	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Andres Nocioni	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	7	20%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Ime Udoka	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,-0.05	0.13	-0.11	0.07	9	85%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Jason Thompson	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	0.00	0.04	13	50%	-0.03	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.02	18	65%	0.15	3	-0.03	4	75%	-0.04
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	9	67%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	9	48%	0.03	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Jannero Pargo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	4	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	9	53%	0.01	5	-0.04	1	0%	-0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	12	47%	0.01	5	-0.04	6	83%	-0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.14,-0.16	-0.16	0.02	-0.17	0.00	19	53%	0.02	3	-0.18	7	86%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.3	31.1	15.8	26.2	1.8	40.0	141.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +1.5%

SAC +0.9%

SAC +39.6%

SAC +9.8%

CHI -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	CHI	NBA	SAC	CHI	NBA
this game	15.7	13.9	15.3	105.2	100.0	106.0
season	15.2	14.7		103.7	101.9
opponent	15.7	15.0		103.9	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	17.3	14.0	13.7	18.1	15.7
CHI	13.5	13.7	14.5	13.8	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Brockman	34	34	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.16	25	-21	46	15.4	15.8	-0.35	14.2	13.7	0.46
Beno Udrih	47	48	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.40	14	-10	24	16.2	15.2	1.05	13.3	14.4	-1.11
Ime Udoka	44	45	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.42	13	-9	22	17.1	14.5	2.60	13.5	14.2	-0.76
Tyreke Evans	90	91	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.37	6	-2	8	15.6	16.0	-0.36	13.8	15.0	-1.21
Jason Thompson	81	82	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.48	2	2	0	15.7	15.7	-0.10	13.5	15.7	-2.16
Donte Greene	32	29	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.56	19	-15	34	13.8	16.6	-2.82	17.0	12.6	4.43
Kenny Thomas	7	7	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	6	-8	16.0	15.6	0.36	15.0	13.8	1.21
Sergio Rodriguez	41	40	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.55	16	-12	28	13.8	17.1	-3.27	15.8	12.6	3.21
Omri Casspi	33	34	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	0.47	-25	29	-54	15.8	15.6	0.18	11.9	14.9	-2.97
Andres Nocioni	33	35	-0.34	0.84	-1.19	0.48	-28	32	-60	16.8	15.1	1.69	12.6	14.6	-1.94
Spencer Hawes	43	45	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	0.24	-20	24	-44	16.1	15.3	0.76	14.0	13.7	0.31

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	47	47	0.28	-0.78	1.07	-0.07	12	-16	28	13.7	14.0	-0.30	15.3	16.0	-0.72
Taj Gibson	43	42	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.47	-9	5	-14	15.6	12.5	3.08	14.9	16.2	-1.31
Jannero Pargo	1	1	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-4	4	5.0	14.0	-8.97	0.0	15.8	-15.83
Derrick Rose	86	85	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.47	-2	-2	0	13.3	17.7	-4.32	15.5	16.8	-1.33
Joakim Noah	80	79	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.59	1	-5	6	13.4	15.9	-2.53	16.2	13.4	2.73
John Salmons	85	85	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.57	0	-4	4	13.4	17.0	-3.60	15.5	16.6	-1.04
Luol Deng	85	84	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.56	-1	-3	2	13.8	14.4	-0.58	16.7	9.2	7.44
Kirk Hinrich	63	62	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.12	-21	17	-38	15.0	11.8	3.19	15.1	16.7	-1.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.68,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 114, MIN 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.68,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.84,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.89,0.42,0	92.4%
LAC 99, MEM 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.77,0.84,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,0.96,0.58,0	92.3%
DEN 95, MEM 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.93,0.87,0.72,0	91.4%