NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	99		Excitement	7.7 [255]		MVP	Nene (DEN): +17.5%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	12.4 [266]		LVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): -18.7%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lou Amundson	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.07	-0.02	7	86%	0.17	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0.12	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.12	0.14	-0.00	0.02	17	70%	0.15	2	-0.04	6	83%	-0.01
Channing Frye	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	5	79%	0.16	1	-0.09	4	25%	-0.04
Grant Hill	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	10	50%	0.08	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Robin Lopez	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.03	-0.02	8	44%	0.04	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jared Dudley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	-0.02	7	62%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	10	50%	0.06	7	-0.24	6	83%	0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.09	-0.00	7	62%	0.18	0	0.00	10	90%	0.04
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.08	0.00	1	90%	0.16	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.06,0.26,0.24,0.14	0.14	0.00	0.16	0.03	18	57%	0.33	5	-0.19	6	50%	-0.04
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	7	60%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.03	0.01	25	53%	0.10	3	-0.07	10	90%	0.03
Joey Graham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	10	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.13	-0.07	-0.01	8	11%	-0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.5	35.5	16.3	29.6	2.7	36.2	150.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX -27.5%

DEN +14.9%

DEN +46.6%

DEN +11.0%

DEN +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	DEN	NBA	PHX	DEN	NBA
this game	14.7	15.5	15.3	103.1	110.5	106.0
season	14.4	14.4		113.5	110.3
opponent	15.5	15.5		106.4	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	14.3	12.3	15.5	17.3	14.7
DEN	14.5	14.3	14.5	19.7	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lou Amundson	50	48	0.26	-0.76	1.01	-0.09	12	-18	30	14.7	14.7	-0.04	15.5	15.4	0.12
Goran Dragic	33	33	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.17	9	-15	24	14.4	14.8	-0.43	16.8	14.8	2.09
Robin Lopez	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-6	6	13.7	14.8	-1.04	19.3	15.2	4.10
Jared Dudley	44	45	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.29	5	-11	16	15.3	14.2	1.10	17.4	13.8	3.56
Grant Hill	88	86	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.31	0	-6	6	14.5	16.9	-2.40	15.1	19.0	-3.88
Channing Frye	61	63	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-2	-2	14.6	14.7	-0.10	15.1	16.2	-1.06
Jason Richardson	54	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.02	-13	7	-20	14.3	15.2	-0.87	14.2	17.2	-3.05
Steve Nash	69	67	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.17	-19	13	-32	15.0	13.9	1.10	15.1	16.4	-1.34
Amar'e Stoudemire	74	72	-0.89	0.39	-1.29	-0.31	-20	14	-34	14.8	14.2	0.58	15.4	15.8	-0.39

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	78	80	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.25	21	-15	36	15.1	17.2	-2.13	14.9	13.6	1.34
Carmelo Anthony	87	89	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.21	17	-11	28	15.3	18.0	-2.75	14.9	11.9	3.04
Chauncey Billups	64	66	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.38	10	-4	14	15.8	14.8	1.01	15.2	13.5	1.71
Anthony Carter	23	24	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.33	9	-3	12	19.6	14.2	5.38	17.0	13.9	3.04
Kenyon Martin	74	74	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.27	1	5	-4	14.8	17.8	-2.99	14.5	15.2	-0.71
Arron Afflalo	41	41	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.10	9	-3	12	13.6	16.9	-3.38	14.2	15.1	-0.88
Chris Andersen	38	38	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.12	-10	16	-26	17.6	14.1	3.45	14.5	14.8	-0.25
J.R. Smith	42	42	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.07	-9	15	-24	15.3	15.7	-0.40	14.5	14.8	-0.23
Ty Lawson	28	26	-0.44	0.94	-1.39	0.08	-18	24	-42	15.2	15.6	-0.33	11.5	15.9	-4.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.76,0.6,0.45,0.63,0.76,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 115, DEN 119	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.13,0.22,0.16,0.23,0.17,0.24,0.35,0.44,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.53,0.52,0.37,0.59,0.6,0.47,0.67,0.63,0.67,0.85,1	91.0%
OKC 105, HOU 110	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.79,0.95,0.99,1	90.5%
DET 96, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.16,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.3,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.72,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.87,1	89.8%