NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	115		Excitement	8.6 [191]		MVP	Wesley Person (DEN): +17.0%
Denver Nuggets	119		Comeback	8.3 [321]		LVP	Sebastian Telfair (POR): -29.0%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joel Przybilla	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	9	54%	0.07	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Darius Miles	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.10	-0.08	0.02	33	59%	0.02	1	-0.01	14	57%	-0.10
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Viktor Khryapa	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Damon Stoudamire	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.08	0.02	-0.02	12	47%	0.03	3	-0.07	6	83%	-0.01
Ruben Patterson	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	8	64%	0.06	3	-0.17	9	44%	-0.05
Sebastian Telfair	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.29,-0.29	-0.06	-0.21	0.02	10	46%	-0.20	2	-0.09	4	75%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.11	0.00	5	75%	0.17	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.11	0.01	7	79%	0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.1,0,0,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.02	0.15	0.00	16	60%	0.21	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.06
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	4	60%	0.04	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	8	37%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.09	-0.00	16	64%	0.07	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	6	17%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.23,-0.22	-0.22	-0.00	-0.18	0.03	25	56%	-0.02	3	-0.20	14	86%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.0	30.8	14.8	27.2	2.3	31.5	135.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +22.4%

DEN +10.3%

DEN +25.8%

POR -3.9%

POR -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DEN	NBA	POR	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	12.6	15.5	109.5	111.2	104.0
season	15.8	14.8		101.2	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.6		102.3	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.5	13.3	16.2	13.6	14.6
DEN	13.9	12.4	10.5	13.6	12.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	30	32	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.03	8	-12	20	15.6	14.3	1.31	11.9	12.8	-0.93
Viktor Khryapa	36	36	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.09	4	-8	12	13.4	15.3	-1.93	13.5	12.1	1.46
Travis Outlaw	43	44	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.09	2	-6	8	14.5	14.7	-0.20	13.3	12.0	1.25
Sebastian Telfair	83	84	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.29	-3	-1	-2	14.4	15.4	-0.99	12.2	13.7	-1.50
Darius Miles	88	89	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.45	-1	-3	2	14.5	15.4	-0.93	12.7	11.7	1.07
Ruben Patterson	75	76	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	3	-10	14.9	14.0	0.83	11.8	14.5	-2.75
Damon Stoudamire	86	88	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.39	-7	3	-10	14.7	14.2	0.57	12.3	13.6	-1.30
Joel Przybilla	84	86	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.27	-16	12	-28	14.9	13.4	1.56	13.1	10.4	2.71

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	89	87	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.34	13	-9	22	12.3	13.9	-1.66	14.7	14.3	0.42
Nene	72	72	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.36	11	-7	18	11.8	14.1	-2.27	15.0	13.8	1.18
Earl Boykins	82	81	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.37	9	-5	14	12.1	14.1	-1.98	14.6	14.8	-0.27
Greg Buckner	70	68	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.36	2	2	0	12.0	13.6	-1.54	14.9	14.1	0.85
DerMarr Johnson	40	39	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.03	10	-6	16	12.5	12.6	-0.06	15.8	14.0	1.81
Wesley Person	41	39	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.43	-7	11	-18	13.2	12.2	0.99	14.4	14.7	-0.31
Francisco Elson	58	58	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	3	-2	12.8	12.2	0.62	13.9	15.5	-1.56
Voshon Lenard	32	32	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	5	-6	13.6	12.1	1.52	12.7	15.5	-2.84
Andre Miller	33	31	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.05	-7	11	-18	13.7	12.0	1.69	14.3	14.8	-0.48
Bryon Russell	18	18	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	0.06	-11	15	-26	14.8	12.1	2.73	16.2	14.3	1.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.13,0.22,0.16,0.23,0.17,0.24,0.35,0.44,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.53,0.52,0.37,0.59,0.6,0.47,0.67,0.63,0.67,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 79, WAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.44,0.55,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.69,0.63,0.94,0.99,1	92.4%
OKC 105, HOU 110	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.79,0.95,0.99,1	91.5%
CHI 91, ORL 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.3,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.17,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.47,0.83,0.71,0.6,0.86,0.78,0.77,0.95,1	91.1%