NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	96		Excitement	7.8 [295]		MVP	Blake Griffin (LAC): +34.2%
Los Angeles Clippers	101		Comeback	7.4 [244]		LVP	Reggie Jackson (DET): -21.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.05	0.03	8	80%	0.19	2	-0.04	9	78%	0.01
Aron Baynes	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	10	43%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Stanley Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	8	56%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	13	45%	0.02	2	-0.06	14	43%	-0.12
Marcus Morris	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	10	27%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Reggie Jackson	-0.21	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.05,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.25,-0.21	0.01	-0.21	0.02	15	57%	-0.03	4	-0.18	5	80%	0.04

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Blake Griffin	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.34	0.34	0.10	0.24	0.00	25	57%	0.39	2	-0.04	10	60%	-0.00
Austin Rivers	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.13,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.06	0.03	7	72%	0.18	2	-0.09	4	50%	-0.03
Jamal Crawford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.02	0.02	0.10	-0.06	0.03	27	58%	0.13	3	-0.11	10	100%	0.08
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.02	0.03	7	71%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pablo Prigioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	6	25%	-0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	28.0	15.7	30.0	2.0	43.2	145.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +31.3%

DET -3.2%

LAC +17.2%

LAC +4.2%

LAC +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	LAC	NBA	DET	LAC	NBA
this game	15.3	14.8	14.9	100.0	106.3	105.1
season	15.0	14.8		104.9	106.6
opponent	14.9	15.1		102.1	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.1	16.2	14.0	15.2	15.3
LAC	16.6	12.6	14.8	15.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aron Baynes	29	30	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.22	5	-10	15	14.5	15.7	-1.18	14.2	15.1	-0.84
Steve Blake	30	29	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-3	1	15.0	15.5	-0.45	12.7	15.7	-3.05
Anthony Tolliver	39	38	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.01	-6	1	-7	16.6	14.5	2.10	12.6	16.3	-3.76
Marcus Morris	79	80	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.38	7	-12	19	14.5	19.2	-4.73	14.7	15.3	-0.54
Ersan Ilyasova	56	55	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.35	5	-10	15	14.7	16.2	-1.55	16.9	12.0	4.90
Stanley Johnson	41	41	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	6	-17	16.6	14.4	2.21	13.0	16.2	-3.14
Andre Drummond	67	65	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.13	-10	5	-15	15.7	14.5	1.18	15.1	14.2	0.84
Reggie Jackson	67	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.28	-5	0	-5	15.3	15.4	-0.15	15.5	13.1	2.42
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	72	70	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.28	-8	3	-11	15.5	14.7	0.79	15.8	12.2	3.60

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Crawford	78	81	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.17	21	-16	37	15.0	14.1	0.92	15.6	14.1	1.43
Austin Rivers	81	81	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.26	9	-4	13	15.2	12.6	2.63	15.5	14.5	0.96
DeAndre Jordan	73	74	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.21	8	-3	11	15.4	12.8	2.59	16.0	13.2	2.75
Luc Mbah a Moute	20	19	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.05	12	-7	19	13.0	15.3	-2.23	14.1	15.6	-1.54
Paul Pierce	58	60	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.32	-1	6	-7	15.8	13.3	2.52	15.0	15.9	-0.96
Blake Griffin	82	84	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.35	-2	7	-9	15.2	12.2	2.99	15.2	16.3	-1.13
Josh Smith	28	27	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.14	-4	9	-13	13.1	15.5	-2.36	14.8	15.6	-0.74
Wesley Johnson	25	26	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.01	-1	6	-7	13.3	15.4	-2.08	16.7	14.9	1.80
Pablo Prigioni	25	24	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.19	-9	14	-23	13.0	15.4	-2.40	14.5	15.6	-1.07
Lance Stephenson	5	4	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.09	-8	13	-21	12.0	15.0	-2.97	10.2	15.6	-5.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.16,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.3,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.72,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.87,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 91, ORL 94	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.25,0.19,0.24,0.39,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.64,0.65,0.78,0.68,0.54,0.55,0.92,1	91.6%
MIL 104, MIA 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.27,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.24,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.28,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.72,0.85,0.96,1	91.1%
HOU 91, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.23,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.41,0.33,0.42,0.59,0.6,0.66,0.55,0.45,0.68,0.96,1	90.3%