NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	106		Excitement	4.0 [996]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +18.0%
Miami Heat	93		Comeback	1.0 [814]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -12.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.10	0.02	-0.07	18	64%	0.21	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Erick Dampier	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.02	0.00	9	80%	0.18	1	-0.01	7	86%	0.03
Shawn Marion	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.02	-0.04	10	50%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jose Juan Barea	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.00	8	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Drew Gooden	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	7	60%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.01	14	53%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.05	6	50%	0.06	3	-0.05	2	50%	0.00
Rodrigue Beaubois	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	8	28%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.18	0.03	0.03	10	85%	0.18	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	11	42%	-0.00	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	19	39%	-0.02	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	24	44%	-0.04	4	-0.08	15	80%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	32.3	17.7	30.3	2.6	31.5	142.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +51.8%

DAL +4.4%

MIA -10.3%

DAL +1.4%

DAL +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	15.5	15.3	114.0	98.9	106.0
season	15.2	16.2		107.2	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		102.8	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.6	14.4	14.5	17.6	15.3
MIA	16.0	15.0	18.2	13.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	71	72	0.64	-0.14	0.77	-0.10	25	-12	37	14.8	17.0	-2.19	15.8	14.5	1.27
Erick Dampier	62	62	0.63	-0.13	0.75	-0.14	26	-13	39	15.2	15.4	-0.21	15.6	15.4	0.22
Dirk Nowitzki	74	74	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.03	20	-7	27	15.0	16.3	-1.24	16.1	13.2	2.89
Shawn Marion	53	52	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.07	20	-7	27	14.4	16.5	-2.10	16.4	14.4	2.02
Jose Juan Barea	66	66	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.06	10	3	7	16.0	13.6	2.43	15.3	16.1	-0.78
Jason Terry	61	62	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.27	-8	21	-29	15.8	14.3	1.47	14.5	17.5	-3.05
Rodrigue Beaubois	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	23.5	15.1	8.40	7.0	15.7	-8.71
Josh Howard	43	45	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.29	-13	26	-39	15.1	15.4	-0.30	15.8	15.2	0.58
Drew Gooden	33	35	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.31	-15	28	-43	15.9	14.9	0.98	14.5	16.1	-1.60

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Arroyo	27	25	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.20	9	-22	31	15.7	15.5	0.20	16.2	14.9	1.26
James Jones	13	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-17	21	17.1	15.3	1.81	15.5	15.2	0.21
Udonis Haslem	67	67	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.35	10	-23	33	15.0	16.7	-1.66	15.7	14.1	1.62
Quentin Richardson	14	14	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.14	-12	-1	-11	15.8	15.5	0.31	13.6	15.6	-2.01
Dorell Wright	57	58	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.03	-9	-4	-5	14.6	17.0	-2.39	15.9	14.3	1.64
Joel Anthony	63	62	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.06	-15	2	-17	15.7	15.2	0.54	15.0	15.9	-0.94
Michael Beasley	78	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.03	-15	2	-17	15.8	14.2	1.61	15.0	16.5	-1.53
Mario Chalmers	74	73	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.08	-16	3	-19	15.5	15.7	-0.29	15.2	15.5	-0.28
Dwyane Wade	77	77	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	0.03	-21	8	-29	15.9	13.8	2.14	15.0	16.7	-1.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 106, CHA 89	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
WAS 98, SAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.02,0	95.6%
ATL 117, CLE 115	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.32,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.25,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	95.6%