NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	101		Excitement	8.2 [204]		MVP	Deron Williams (UTA): +20.9%
Utah Jazz	104		Comeback	4.5 [328]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -22.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.18	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.18	0.09	0.14	0.04	15	62%	0.32	2	-0.13	7	100%	0.12
Matt Bonner	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.1	0.24	-0.12	0.01	14	85%	0.13	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.04
Antonio McDyess	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	62%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Malik Hairston	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Jefferson	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.08	-0.01	6	36%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,-0.18	0.03	-0.19	0.02	11	71%	-0.01	5	-0.17	9	78%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-0.00	7	36%	-0.08	2	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.21	0.21	-0.01	0.21	-0.01	16	53%	0.27	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.07	0.01	11	68%	0.18	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	-0.01	6	83%	0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.01	10	52%	0.01	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.22,0.22,-0.04	-0.04	0.09	-0.10	0.03	18	60%	0.01	2	-0.05	9	78%	-0.17
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	0.05	-0.05	0.06	9	70%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.5	28.3	15.8	24.4	1.7	32.9	131.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +67.2%

SAS -37.0%

SAS -2.2%

UTA +26.0%

SAS -4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	UTA	NBA	SAS	UTA	NBA
this game	16.1	15.9	15.3	112.2	115.6	106.0
season	15.9	15.3		108.2	109.5
opponent	15.0	15.1		104.5	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.6	17.0	16.8	15.3	16.1
UTA	16.5	16.5	13.9	16.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeJuan Blair	26	25	0.51	-1.01	1.53	0.02	17	-20	37	14.2	16.9	-2.75	19.1	14.6	4.46
George Hill	38	37	0.38	-0.88	1.25	-0.06	15	-18	33	16.2	16.1	0.16	17.7	14.6	3.09
Malik Hairston	1	1	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-4	5	21.0	16.1	4.91	10.0	15.9	-5.92
Roger Mason Jr.	39	38	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.20	6	-9	15	16.5	15.9	0.56	16.6	15.3	1.30
Keith Bogans	16	17	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.08	-6	3	-9	19.4	15.4	4.01	13.6	16.4	-2.72
Antonio McDyess	29	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.01	-4	1	-5	16.3	16.0	0.30	15.2	16.2	-1.01
Richard Jefferson	69	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.29	-3	0	-3	15.7	17.7	-1.99	15.6	16.8	-1.21
Matt Bonner	59	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.33	-3	0	-3	16.3	15.9	0.42	15.9	15.7	0.17
Tony Parker	63	64	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.33	-11	8	-19	15.9	16.8	-0.90	15.5	16.6	-1.07
Manu Ginobili	44	45	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.39	-11	8	-19	15.6	16.7	-1.08	15.6	16.1	-0.56
Tim Duncan	66	67	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.50	-16	13	-29	16.7	14.6	2.07	14.9	18.7	-3.76

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mehmet Okur	51	51	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.42	14	-11	25	14.8	17.2	-2.38	16.0	16.4	-0.42
Wesley Matthews	65	65	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.37	15	-12	27	15.3	17.4	-2.14	16.1	16.3	-0.19
Deron Williams	78	79	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.31	12	-9	21	15.7	16.9	-1.22	16.3	15.2	1.10
Ronnie Brewer	81	81	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.37	0	3	-3	15.9	15.4	0.46	16.2	15.7	0.53
Carlos Boozer	83	83	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.39	-1	4	-5	15.9	15.6	0.31	16.2	15.3	0.93
Eric Maynor	12	11	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.10	-9	12	-21	16.9	15.7	1.22	15.2	16.3	-1.10
CJ Miles	34	34	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.08	-9	12	-21	16.9	15.2	1.65	16.1	16.2	-0.04
Paul Millsap	46	46	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.01	-7	10	-17	17.0	14.7	2.25	16.2	16.1	0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.21,0.23,0.24,0.34,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.79,0.76,0.67,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.81,0.69,0.6,0.53,0.39,0.45,0.77,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 125, MIL 129	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.36,0.38,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.77,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.47,0.63,0.67,0.91,1	91.8%
UTA 86, WAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.25,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.52,0.72,0.66,0.6,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.74,0.65,0.54,0.47,0.64,0.68,0.96,1	90.7%
MIA 108, BOS 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.18,0.26,0.27,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.37,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.74,0.82,0.71,0.81,0.64,0.53,0.4,0.39,0.64,0.86,0.85,1	89.7%