NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	106		Excitement	5.9 [614]		MVP	Ryan Gomes (MIN): +19.9%
Denver Nuggets	100		Comeback	7.8 [18]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): -15.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Gomes	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.18	0.05	0.03	18	73%	0.23	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.09	-0.00	10	64%	0.19	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.02
Damien Wilkins	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.01	11	60%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Wayne Ellington	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	4	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Al Jefferson	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	13	48%	0.07	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.02
Ramon Sessions	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Oleksiy Pecherov	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nathan Jawai	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonny Flynn	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	0.01	0.02	17	43%	-0.01	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Ryan Hollins	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	4	40%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	12	53%	0.06	2	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01	0.01	0.13	-0.06	0.07	25	58%	0.05	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nene	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.02	0.02	8	53%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	4	75%	0.07	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	11	29%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.05	-0.02	13	39%	-0.05	4	-0.11	10	80%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.3	28.5	14.8	26.2	2.6	35.0	137.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +53.6%

DEN -2.9%

MIN +0.9%

DEN -1.4%

DEN -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	14.9	14.4	15.3	108.2	102.0	106.0
season	14.7	14.4		100.1	110.3
opponent	15.5	14.8		106.4	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.4	13.4	15.8	17.6	14.9
DEN	13.8	13.7	16.9	13.7	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Gomes	74	75	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.16	15	-9	24	14.7	15.7	-0.96	14.4	14.7	-0.38
Al Jefferson	71	71	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.19	11	-5	16	15.2	14.2	1.04	13.9	15.9	-1.94
Corey Brewer	73	71	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.28	5	1	4	14.8	15.2	-0.35	13.7	16.3	-2.55
Jonny Flynn	63	60	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.21	6	0	6	15.6	13.7	1.90	13.3	16.2	-2.92
Damien Wilkins	68	67	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.47	-7	13	-20	15.5	13.6	1.88	13.5	16.4	-2.88
Ryan Hollins	46	46	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.02	7	-1	8	14.5	15.4	-0.91	16.5	12.7	3.82
Ramon Sessions	35	38	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.11	0	6	-6	13.7	15.6	-1.90	16.2	13.3	2.92
Wayne Ellington	25	27	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	5	-4	15.2	14.8	0.35	16.3	13.7	2.55
Nathan Jawai	25	25	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.16	-6	12	-18	14.6	15.0	-0.40	15.7	14.0	1.65
Oleksiy Pecherov	10	10	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.02	-2	8	-10	13.7	15.1	-1.38	12.6	14.7	-2.06

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	39	38	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.06	5	-11	16	16.0	13.4	2.53	15.9	14.3	1.52
Joey Graham	18	18	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.04	1	-7	8	12.8	14.8	-2.05	15.6	14.8	0.82
J.R. Smith	45	44	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-8	10	15.8	13.3	2.54	14.5	15.3	-0.80
Ty Lawson	36	35	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-2	-2	14.5	14.4	0.08	15.0	14.9	0.05
Chauncey Billups	67	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.29	-2	-4	2	14.3	14.7	-0.33	15.1	14.6	0.49
Kenyon Martin	76	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-1	-4	14.4	14.5	-0.07	14.4	16.9	-2.44
Carmelo Anthony	72	73	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	14.4	14.5	-0.02	14.5	16.1	-1.59
Nene	78	78	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.23	-12	6	-18	13.8	17.1	-3.33	14.9	14.9	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	59	59	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.38	-9	3	-12	13.9	15.3	-1.34	15.5	14.2	1.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.83,0.85,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.76,0.66,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.17,0.23,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.04,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 102, CLE 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.45,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.22,0.18,0.25,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.04,0	93.2%
SAC 92, UTA 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.87,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.65,0.52,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.12,0.28,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.09,0	93.0%
BOS 89, ATL 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.81,0.83,0.87,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.88,0.81,0.8,0.72,0.7,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.48,0.4,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.01,0.03,0,0	92.7%