NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	104		Excitement	4.9 [823]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +17.5%
San Antonio Spurs	118		Comeback	1.8 [1158]		LVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): -22.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.19	0.01	0.03	25	70%	0.27	4	-0.10	10	90%	0.02
Corey Maggette	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	-0.01	-0.03	11	54%	0.06	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Randolph	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	9	48%	0.02	1	-0.01	7	57%	-0.02
Mikki Moore	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	5	64%	0.07	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Chris Hunter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.00	-0.02	0.04	7	53%	-0.03	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	8	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	-0.23	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.18	-0.06	-0.02	16	34%	-0.10	6	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.15	0.04	0.03	12	80%	0.18	1	-0.02	1	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.02	-0.03	10	77%	0.15	2	-0.01	2	50%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.02	18	60%	0.15	3	-0.07	17	71%	-0.02
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	1	150%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.06	5	45%	0.03	2	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.03	-0.04	12	40%	0.02	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.03
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Haislip	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Hairston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.04	8	57%	0.02	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Keith Bogans	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	6	25%	-0.07	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	2.4	29.5	15.5	28.3	2.5	32.4	138.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +34.5%

SAS +6.3%

GSW -1.8%

SAS +12.6%

GSW -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAS	NBA	GSW	SAS	NBA
this game	13.2	14.6	15.3	102.0	112.4	106.0
season	13.4	15.9		106.5	108.2
opponent	15.1	14.8		103.4	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	11.5	12.9	15.2	13.5	13.2
SAS	15.1	15.9	12.5	14.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ Watson	32	35	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.11	5	-19	24	12.5	13.6	-1.13	16.4	13.6	2.80
Chris Hunter	19	22	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.20	7	-21	28	11.9	13.5	-1.59	16.2	14.1	2.05
Vladimir Radmanovic	64	64	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.14	-8	-6	-2	13.0	13.7	-0.74	14.2	15.0	-0.80
Corey Maggette	56	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.15	-15	1	-16	14.1	12.2	1.95	14.2	15.0	-0.86
Mikki Moore	43	42	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.04	-10	-4	-6	13.3	13.2	0.02	14.2	14.8	-0.62
Stephen Curry	74	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.16	-7	-7	0	12.9	14.1	-1.19	14.4	15.0	-0.66
Anthony Morrow	70	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.21	-9	-5	-4	13.3	13.1	0.18	14.1	15.7	-1.57
Anthony Randolph	57	58	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.12	-12	-2	-10	13.6	12.7	0.92	14.8	14.3	0.44
Monta Ellis	95	97	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.11	-21	7	-28	13.4	11.1	2.26	14.5	15.2	-0.74

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	51	52	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.02	16	-2	18	13.9	15.2	-1.32	13.2	13.2	0.01
George Hill	72	67	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	2	10	14.4	14.8	-0.37	13.9	12.1	1.81
Michael Finley	37	35	0.42	0.07	0.35	-0.10	18	-4	22	14.0	14.9	-0.83	14.3	12.7	1.67
Tony Parker	63	63	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	3	8	14.6	14.6	-0.02	13.4	13.0	0.44
Richard Jefferson	70	68	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.19	14	0	14	14.3	15.1	-0.83	13.2	13.4	-0.25
Tim Duncan	60	58	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.03	7	7	0	14.8	14.2	0.59	12.8	13.8	-0.97
Keith Bogans	51	52	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.12	9	5	4	14.7	14.5	0.20	12.5	14.0	-1.52
Matt Bonner	23	23	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.10	1	13	-12	15.7	14.2	1.51	14.5	12.9	1.59
Roger Mason Jr.	57	54	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	14	-14	15.1	14.0	1.11	12.9	13.7	-0.80
DeJuan Blair	23	22	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.09	-2	16	-18	14.3	14.6	-0.33	13.9	13.1	0.79
Marcus Haislip	9	8	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.23	-8	22	-30	15.2	14.5	0.72	10.5	13.5	-2.98
Malik Hairston	9	8	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.23	-8	22	-30	15.2	14.5	0.72	10.5	13.5	-2.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 92, BOS 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.6,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
MIA 112, TOR 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.66,0.78,0.85,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.98,0.96,1	94.4%
GSW 87, SAC 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.66,0.7,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.83,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%