NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	112		Excitement	5.6 [735]		MVP	Serge Ibaka (TOR): +18.9%
Toronto Raptors	115		Comeback	2.3 [805]		LVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): -16.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.13	0.11	0.04	0.02	11	68%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.00	11	67%	0.13	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Goran Dragic	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08	0.11	0.02	0.05	19	64%	0.18	3	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	6	65%	0.07	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
Justise Winslow	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	0.00	9	56%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	8	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.02	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16	-0.04	-0.07	0.06	9	50%	-0.08	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.06	-0.00	7	78%	0.19	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14	0.14	-0.01	0.07	-0.08	25	48%	0.21	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.03	-0.02	8	62%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.00	0.03	17	59%	0.10	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.02	-0.03	11	41%	0.05	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	-0.00	0.05	6	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
OG Anunoby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.02	3	100%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	8	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	60%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.8	25.5	15.0	27.3	2.3	37.6	132.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +25.5%

TOR +6.4%

MIA -5.7%

TOR +21.1%

TOR +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	15.0	13.8	14.7	112.0	115.0	107.5
season	15.1	14.6		105.4	112.7
opponent	14.8	14.6		105.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	16.8	13.8	14.4	15.0
TOR	13.6	13.8	12.9	15.0	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Johnson	44	44	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.34	12	-15	27	14.2	15.6	-1.42	16.0	12.0	4.01
Justise Winslow	42	43	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.08	-2	-1	-1	14.8	15.1	-0.33	14.5	13.3	1.25
Goran Dragic	66	65	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.31	6	-9	15	14.4	16.1	-1.65	14.1	13.2	0.88
Bam Adebayo	51	52	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.43	7	-10	17	15.4	14.6	0.88	13.8	13.7	0.10
Hassan Whiteside	49	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.02	-10	7	-17	14.6	15.4	-0.88	13.7	13.8	-0.10
Josh Richardson	79	78	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-4	5	14.5	16.9	-2.41	13.9	13.5	0.44
Wayne Ellington	64	65	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.35	-4	1	-5	15.2	14.7	0.52	13.4	14.5	-1.14
Dwyane Wade	46	46	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.15	-11	8	-19	16.1	14.1	1.97	12.1	15.3	-3.21
James Johnson	59	59	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.06	-14	11	-25	16.0	13.6	2.44	12.9	15.0	-2.12

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	75	76	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.33	10	-7	17	13.7	14.1	-0.37	13.8	18.8	-5.04
Fred VanVleet	48	49	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	-1	5	12.9	14.6	-1.70	15.4	14.6	0.84
Kyle Lowry	68	68	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.34	0	3	-3	14.6	12.2	2.42	14.4	16.3	-1.93
Serge Ibaka	53	55	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.05	8	-5	13	14.0	13.6	0.39	14.7	15.4	-0.73
Jonas Valanciunas	63	63	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.31	-1	4	-5	14.7	12.2	2.47	14.1	16.6	-2.53
Pascal Siakam	43	40	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.23	0	3	-3	12.9	14.5	-1.65	16.0	14.3	1.71
Jakob Poeltl	37	37	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.10	4	-1	5	12.2	14.7	-2.47	16.6	14.1	2.53
Delon Wright	42	40	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.31	-8	11	-19	14.6	13.2	1.37	16.2	14.2	2.00
Norman Powell	14	15	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.08	5	-2	7	12.5	14.0	-1.51	14.8	15.0	-0.24
CJ Miles	29	30	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	6	-9	13.4	14.0	-0.54	17.2	14.0	3.19
OG Anunoby	28	27	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	7	-11	14.6	13.5	1.17	14.2	15.3	-1.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.66,0.78,0.85,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.98,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 92, BOS 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.6,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
GSW 104, SAS 118	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
PHX 93, LAL 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.2%