NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	10.7 [36]		MVP	Michael Beasley (MIA): +59.1%
Orlando Magic	98		Comeback	27.2 [25]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -23.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Beasley	0.59	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.59	-0.03	0.61	-0.00	16	44%	0.61	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
James Jones	0.16	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.18	0.00	0.02	7	89%	0.16	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Carlos Arroyo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.02	5	46%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	10	45%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	3	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.1	-0.02	-0.09	-0.01	10	50%	-0.06	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.05
Dwyane Wade	-0.23	0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.22,-0.2,-0.07,0.16,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.23	-0.07	-0.16	-0.00	22	44%	-0.12	4	-0.12	11	100%	0.10

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.07	-0.00	7	80%	0.18	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.11	0.11	0.20	-0.08	0.01	12	86%	0.15	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.18
Vince Carter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	19	50%	0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.13,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.07	0.00	5	57%	0.14	4	-0.12	11	55%	-0.14
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	2	40%	0.03	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.1	-0.10	0.00	-0.13	-0.03	2	75%	0.06	1	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.15	-0.05	-0.01	15	27%	-0.13	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.11,-0.21	-0.21	-0.01	-0.20	0.00	11	42%	-0.21	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	3.0	35.1	18.4	32.8	3.7	48.9	166.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +14.5%

MIA +28.4%

ORL -19.4%

MIA +30.7%

ORL -4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	16.6	15.0	15.3	108.8	107.7	106.0
season	16.2	15.4		104.4	110.1
opponent	15.9	15.4		101.9	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.6	17.3	19.6	14.6	16.6
ORL	15.1	14.6	16.4	14.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daequan Cook	42	41	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.55	6	-5	11	16.3	16.9	-0.57	14.0	15.9	-1.97
Udonis Haslem	56	55	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.64	0	1	-1	16.1	17.4	-1.32	14.2	16.4	-2.20
Dwyane Wade	74	75	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.55	-2	3	-5	15.8	20.4	-4.60	15.1	14.6	0.57
Michael Beasley	64	62	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.47	-2	3	-5	17.4	14.7	2.67	15.4	14.3	1.01
Jermaine O'Neal	69	70	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.57	-8	9	-17	16.0	18.6	-2.61	15.0	15.2	-0.20
Joel Anthony	22	21	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.10	9	-8	17	18.6	16.0	2.61	15.2	15.0	0.20
James Jones	55	58	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.22	13	-12	25	16.2	17.2	-0.96	15.6	14.0	1.67
Carlos Arroyo	24	25	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.05	-1	2	-3	19.1	15.7	3.41	14.7	15.2	-0.49
Mario Chalmers	49	48	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.06	-10	11	-21	16.9	16.3	0.66	15.8	14.1	1.69

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Anderson	33	33	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.10	2	-3	5	15.0	15.1	-0.10	17.5	16.1	1.32
Anthony Johnson	15	16	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.07	6	-7	13	16.0	14.8	1.16	15.6	16.8	-1.20
Jason Williams	75	74	0.08	-0.58	0.65	0.22	-5	4	-9	15.0	15.1	-0.04	17.1	14.7	2.35
JJ Redick	21	21	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.12	-5	4	-9	15.3	14.9	0.39	17.4	16.4	1.06
Dwight Howard	67	67	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.38	11	-12	23	14.9	15.5	-0.63	16.7	16.3	0.38
Matt Barnes	28	29	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.45	4	-5	9	15.5	14.8	0.73	14.4	17.6	-3.23
Marcin Gortat	24	24	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.09	-12	11	-23	15.5	14.9	0.63	16.3	16.7	-0.38
Rashard Lewis	63	63	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.60	2	-3	5	14.8	15.5	-0.73	16.2	17.6	-1.43
Vince Carter	65	65	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.56	-1	0	-1	15.2	14.7	0.53	16.4	17.3	-0.92
Mickael Pietrus	64	63	-0.85	0.35	-1.19	-0.64	-7	6	-13	14.6	16.1	-1.48	17.4	14.9	2.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.39,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.59,0.73,0.8,0.82,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.59,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.22,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 105, GSW 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.66,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.2,0.04,0	91.0%
HOU 98, IND 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.31,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.68,0.56,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.72,0.64,0.54,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.17,0	90.5%
SAC 109, MIN 105	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.73,0.67,0.81,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.46,0.27,0.32,0.15,0.15,0.27,0	89.8%