NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	103		Excitement	8.2 [200]		MVP	Josh Smith (ATL): +35.3%
Atlanta Hawks	105		Comeback	3.7 [516]		LVP	Mike Bibby (ATL): -17.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carl Landry	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.23	0.01	0.21	-0.00	14	53%	0.28	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.16
Chase Budinger	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.00	3	100%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Andersen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	0.00	6	43%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.01	16	47%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	9	56%	0.06	2	-0.07	7	71%	-0.03
Charles Hayes	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	8	31%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	0.03	12	57%	0.03	3	-0.11	6	83%	0.02
Trevor Ariza	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	18	44%	-0.06	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.35	0.35	-0.07	0.42	0.00	7	45%	0.43	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.04
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.20	0.07	0.01	19	76%	0.28	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.07	-0.01	13	70%	0.23	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.02
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.09	0.10	0.01	9	71%	0.23	1	-0.05	6	83%	0.03
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	0.03	-0.04	18	43%	0.09	4	-0.10	8	87%	0.05
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.14	0.00	9	39%	-0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	1.7	27.2	15.7	29.0	2.5	42.9	145.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +80.3%

HOU -19.8%

HOU -11.4%

ATL +1.7%

HOU -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	ATL	NBA	HOU	ATL	NBA
this game	15.9	14.9	15.3	110.8	111.7	106.0
season	15.0	16.0		106.0	109.4
opponent	15.8	15.1		106.0	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.5	15.4	18.4	15.5	15.9
ATL	14.9	14.6	15.0	15.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chase Budinger	26	27	0.54	-1.04	1.58	0.16	13	-15	28	17.1	15.4	1.70	16.3	14.4	1.89
David Andersen	23	24	0.45	-0.95	1.41	0.19	9	-11	20	17.9	15.2	2.63	16.9	14.2	2.69
Kyle Lowry	55	56	0.21	-0.71	0.91	-0.15	12	-14	26	15.4	16.6	-1.21	14.5	15.5	-0.98
Carl Landry	62	61	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.48	2	-4	6	15.9	15.8	0.13	14.2	16.2	-2.00
Charles Hayes	32	35	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.31	-6	4	-10	15.3	16.2	-0.88	15.4	14.6	0.82
Luis Scola	69	68	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.28	-9	7	-16	15.5	17.1	-1.66	14.6	15.8	-1.23
Shane Battier	59	61	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.46	-8	6	-14	16.7	14.4	2.33	15.6	13.7	1.92
Trevor Ariza	76	76	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.62	-12	10	-22	15.3	18.4	-3.08	14.2	17.7	-3.47
Aaron Brooks	64	64	-0.99	0.49	-1.49	-0.61	-13	11	-24	15.5	16.9	-1.41	14.5	15.9	-1.45

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	73	72	1.21	-0.71	1.92	0.68	18	-16	34	14.7	15.7	-1.03	16.0	15.6	0.35
Marvin Williams	81	79	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.40	7	-5	12	14.6	16.7	-2.06	15.4	18.4	-2.99
Joe Johnson	89	88	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.41	4	-2	6	15.1	11.0	4.13	16.0	13.4	2.63
Jamal Crawford	63	62	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.48	-7	9	-16	14.3	16.2	-1.86	15.2	17.4	-2.19
Josh Smith	45	45	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.10	1	1	0	14.6	15.2	-0.60	16.9	14.9	1.97
Al Horford	65	63	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.01	2	0	2	15.8	12.9	2.97	16.1	15.5	0.58
Zaza Pachulia	27	29	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	4	-6	13.6	15.4	-1.80	16.0	15.8	0.21
Joe Smith	9	10	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	5	-8	17.4	14.6	2.80	16.7	15.8	0.90
Jeff Teague	13	14	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.02	-5	7	-12	16.0	14.7	1.26	15.9	15.9	0.04
Maurice Evans	5	3	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.03	-5	7	-12	17.2	14.8	2.41	13.3	16.0	-2.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.65,0.73,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.53,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.35,0.66,0.86,0.96,1,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 94, UTA 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.63,0.57,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.54,0.69,0.93,0.94,0.83,1	92.0%
MIN 122, PHX 128	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.57,0.48,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.72,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.23,0.3,0.45,0.77,0.86,0.99,0.97,0.98,1	91.9%
PHX 87, POR 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.51,0.43,0.52,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.72,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.73,0.85,0.93,0.98,1,1	91.0%