NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	101		Excitement	4.7 [859]		MVP	Jannero Pargo (CHI): +10.7%
Sacramento Kings	87		Comeback	1.2 [734]		LVP	Tyreke Evans (SAC): -10.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jannero Pargo	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.04	-0.02	8	75%	0.14	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	14	57%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	125%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.01	0.03	8	62%	0.05	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Brad Miller	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.01	7	69%	0.08	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
John Salmons	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.01	18	57%	0.09	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Taj Gibson	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	12	33%	-0.02	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.13	-0.01	-0.04	9	16%	-0.05	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donte Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	19	55%	0.08	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.03
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	-0.00	-0.03	6	75%	0.07	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Brockman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.03	13	46%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	-0.00	-0.04	7	47%	-0.01	7	-0.09	3	67%	0.01
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	19	48%	-0.02	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	1.8	27.1	15.5	27.4	2.6	29.3	126.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +38.4%

CHI +2.4%

SAC -0.2%

CHI +8.8%

CHI +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	SAC	NBA	CHI	SAC	NBA
this game	14.5	15.5	15.3	105.2	90.6	106.0
season	14.7	15.2		101.9	103.7
opponent	15.0	15.7		108.5	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.6	12.3	12.9	18.8	14.5
SAC	18.1	14.8	14.8	14.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	62	63	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.02	15	-1	16	14.5	14.4	0.07	14.3	17.7	-3.38
John Salmons	89	88	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.01	14	0	14	14.4	16.1	-1.78	15.9	11.0	4.92
Joakim Noah	68	71	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.01	13	1	12	15.4	12.4	2.96	15.8	14.7	1.12
Luol Deng	80	80	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.15	6	8	-2	15.0	11.9	3.06	15.6	15.1	0.46
Brad Miller	49	48	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.03	10	4	6	12.4	16.7	-4.25	15.2	15.8	-0.60
Jannero Pargo	34	33	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.01	9	5	4	12.4	15.7	-3.31	13.6	16.5	-2.90
Derrick Rose	64	63	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	13	-12	15.8	11.9	3.88	16.2	14.3	1.89
James Johnson	14	13	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	9	-4	12.9	14.8	-1.83	16.0	15.4	0.57
Taj Gibson	20	21	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.09	-3	17	-20	15.7	14.2	1.53	17.4	15.0	2.46

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Brockman	2	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-16	18	20.0	15.4	4.59	11.0	14.5	-3.53
Sergio Rodriguez	40	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.11	-1	-13	12	14.8	16.0	-1.26	15.2	14.0	1.19
Spencer Hawes	48	48	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-10	6	16.3	14.7	1.65	13.7	15.3	-1.65
Ime Udoka	36	37	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.07	-10	-4	-6	13.9	16.5	-2.59	13.7	15.0	-1.28
Jason Thompson	66	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.06	-8	-6	-2	16.0	14.4	1.66	15.1	13.0	2.13
Donte Greene	66	66	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-8	2	15.8	14.8	0.98	15.0	13.3	1.78
Tyreke Evans	82	82	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.12	-7	-7	0	15.7	14.5	1.18	15.0	11.4	3.67
Beno Udrih	63	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	-2	-10	15.8	15.0	0.82	15.0	13.6	1.35
Omri Casspi	40	40	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.02	-11	-3	-8	15.0	15.9	-0.83	11.6	16.6	-4.95
Kenny Thomas	37	35	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.03	-13	-1	-12	14.8	16.0	-1.23	14.7	14.4	0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.28,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.14,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.15,0.17,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 108, DEN 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	95.8%
IND 90, NYK 78	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.19,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.7%
GSW 90, NYK 71	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.18,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%