NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	108		Excitement	4.8 [840]		MVP	Raef LaFrentz (DAL): +9.7%
Denver Nuggets	96		Comeback	1.1 [1211]		LVP	Chris Andersen (DEN): -12.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.01	0.03	7	87%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Nash	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	-0.00	0.03	8	80%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	17	63%	0.11	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Walt Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	6	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Adrian Griffin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	10	36%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.13	0.01	-0.05	23	43%	-0.03	3	-0.05	12	100%	0.05

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	7	76%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Adam Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.01	0.04	11	74%	0.07	2	-0.06	9	56%	-0.04
Predrag Savovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	5	45%	-0.00	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Junior Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	14	61%	0.07	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	6	25%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.03	19	53%	-0.03	2	-0.05	9	78%	-0.00
Jeff Trepagnier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	0.00	0.00	9	22%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	4	8%	-0.10	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	2.7	29.5	16.6	23.2	1.8	31.2	132.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +20.0%

DAL +16.1%

DAL +4.9%

DAL +8.9%

DAL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.8	15.5	15.5	112.5	102.1	101.6
season	15.1	15.7		108.6	90.4
opponent	15.3	15.3		99.4	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.2	14.3	14.0	18.4	14.8
DEN	14.0	15.0	15.4	18.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	80	79	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.08	13	-1	14	15.1	13.2	1.91	15.3	16.9	-1.58
Adrian Griffin	60	59	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.12	7	5	2	15.4	13.7	1.65	14.7	17.0	-2.37
Eduardo Najera	71	68	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	8	-4	14.5	15.5	-0.94	14.7	17.7	-3.02
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	34	33	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.01	9	3	6	13.4	15.5	-2.17	16.8	14.8	2.01
Nick Van Exel	54	53	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.07	7	5	2	15.1	14.4	0.67	16.5	14.3	2.26
Shawn Bradley	50	50	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.09	6	6	0	14.9	14.7	0.16	16.4	14.6	1.79
Steve Nash	56	55	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.07	6	6	0	14.7	14.8	-0.07	15.3	15.9	-0.65
Raef LaFrentz	31	31	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.02	8	4	4	13.7	15.3	-1.63	15.2	15.7	-0.57
Walt Williams	35	34	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	9	-6	14.1	15.2	-1.09	15.5	15.6	-0.11
Avery Johnson	3	2	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	11	-10	17.0	14.7	2.29	5.5	15.8	-10.26
Raja Bell	6	6	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.05	-4	16	-20	20.8	14.4	6.46	22.3	15.1	7.25

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Trepagnier	19	20	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.15	7	-19	26	17.2	15.1	2.02	16.2	14.4	1.79
Predrag Savovic	15	15	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.04	2	-14	16	21.2	14.5	6.73	14.5	14.8	-0.29
Junior Harrington	11	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-8	4	18.0	15.2	2.78	10.3	15.4	-5.09
Adam Harrington	13	15	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-13	14	20.9	14.7	6.24	17.7	14.2	3.42
Chris Andersen	21	21	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.01	-3	-9	6	19.9	14.3	5.56	13.8	15.1	-1.30
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	41	43	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.05	-6	-6	0	15.2	15.8	-0.57	13.6	15.7	-2.09
Shammond Williams	71	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-8	-4	-4	14.1	20.1	-6.02	15.0	14.2	0.71
Juwan Howard	73	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.13	-9	-3	-6	14.3	19.9	-5.56	15.1	13.8	1.30
Donnell Harvey	58	57	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.11	-10	-2	-8	16.6	13.8	2.86	15.1	14.3	0.75
Rodney White	79	81	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.11	-14	2	-16	14.5	21.2	-6.73	14.8	14.5	0.29
Nene	69	70	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.06	-16	4	-20	14.5	18.5	-4.00	14.7	14.9	-0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 101, SAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.28,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.14,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.15,0.17,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	95.8%
NYK 86, PHI 75	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.16,0.18,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0	95.7%
ATL 125, TOR 121	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.2,0.18,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.03,0,0	95.5%