NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	98		Excitement	5.2 [773]		MVP	Peja Stojakovic (NOH): +20.2%
Atlanta Hawks	121		Comeback	1.2 [1278]		LVP	David West (NOH): -14.3%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0.20	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.19	0.02	0.01	17	71%	0.20	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	4	100%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	56%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Hilton Armstrong	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Thornton	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	10	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Sean Marks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Wright	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	7	40%	-0.00	2	-0.04	6	33%	-0.03
Bobby Brown	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	13	50%	0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	29%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Darren Collison	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	0.00	11	42%	-0.05	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
David West	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.21	0.00	-0.06	17	24%	-0.08	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.04	-0.04	14	64%	0.19	2	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.01	0.03	16	67%	0.15	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.04
Al Horford	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.02	0.04	8	78%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	12	63%	0.08	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.00	0.04	9	77%	0.10	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	1	83%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Randolph Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	3	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	10	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.4	29.5	15.6	24.1	2.5	30.2	133.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +24.6%

ATL +6.6%

ATL +6.1%

ATL +11.6%

ATL +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	ATL	NBA	NOH	ATL	NBA
this game	15.0	14.3	15.3	99.0	123.5	106.0
season	15.5	16.0		106.0	109.4
opponent	15.8	15.2		106.0	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	14.6	14.2	15.8	15.5	15.0
ATL	12.6	13.0	17.0	15.1	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Brown	48	47	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.17	9	-32	41	14.0	15.8	-1.82	15.5	13.2	2.33
Marcus Thornton	36	38	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.10	5	-28	33	12.7	16.2	-3.52	15.1	13.8	1.27
Hilton Armstrong	17	19	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-25	27	13.6	15.2	-1.66	15.5	14.0	1.55
Sean Marks	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-21	19	7.7	15.3	-7.51	16.0	14.2	1.82
Julian Wright	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-21	19	7.7	15.3	-7.51	16.0	14.2	1.82
James Posey	49	48	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	-20	17	15.4	14.6	0.81	14.9	13.6	1.30
Darius Songaila	34	33	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.13	-10	-13	3	15.4	14.7	0.64	14.1	14.4	-0.32
David West	76	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.15	-19	-4	-15	15.9	12.0	3.91	14.4	13.8	0.58
Devin Brown	43	43	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.13	-20	-3	-17	15.4	14.6	0.77	13.5	14.9	-1.44
Emeka Okafor	58	56	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.03	-15	-8	-7	15.1	14.7	0.39	13.5	15.3	-1.77
Peja Stojakovic	71	68	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	0.24	-28	5	-33	15.8	12.9	2.93	13.8	15.4	-1.57
Darren Collison	55	55	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	0.34	-32	9	-41	15.3	14.6	0.66	13.3	15.5	-2.20

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	67	68	0.71	-0.21	0.91	-0.23	32	-9	41	13.3	16.3	-2.99	15.6	13.5	2.20
Mike Bibby	57	57	0.63	-0.13	0.76	-0.34	33	-10	43	13.6	15.2	-1.62	16.0	13.6	2.41
Al Horford	61	60	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.27	29	-6	35	13.5	15.6	-2.08	16.0	13.3	2.77
Joe Johnson	65	65	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.23	26	-3	29	13.9	14.9	-1.00	16.2	12.5	3.75
Marvin Williams	56	57	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.31	26	-3	29	13.0	15.9	-2.89	14.6	15.5	-0.90
Jamal Crawford	55	53	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	21	-19	15.9	12.3	3.60	14.7	15.3	-0.60
Randolph Morris	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	22	-21	16.6	14.0	2.51	10.4	15.4	-4.97
Jeff Teague	32	32	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	27	-31	14.2	14.3	-0.04	12.7	16.0	-3.36
Zaza Pachulia	28	30	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.13	-7	30	-37	15.2	13.9	1.36	14.1	15.3	-1.19
Maurice Evans	37	40	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.16	-11	34	-45	15.8	13.3	2.51	13.3	16.1	-2.78
Joe Smith	23	24	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.15	-12	35	-47	16.4	13.6	2.82	14.4	15.1	-0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.82,0.94,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.89,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 103, MIA 112	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.78,0.78,0.88,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.98,1,1,1	95.3%
ORL 81, CHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.86,0.85,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
ORL 93, MIA 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.97,1,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%