NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	103		Excitement	4.1 [1035]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +16.4%
Miami Heat	112		Comeback	1.2 [895]		LVP	Boris Diaw (CHA): -8.0%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kwame Brown	0.10	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.01	0.03	15	68%	0.13	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Garrett Temple	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	9	63%	0.07	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.02
Dominic McGuire	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
DJ White	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	-0.00	0.05	11	57%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	9	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
D.J. Augustin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Henderson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	13	41%	-0.02	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.04	-0.01	11	71%	0.24	4	-0.07	16	94%	0.05
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.11	0.14	0.00	0.03	14	71%	0.17	3	-0.06	10	90%	0.02
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.01	0.02	16	61%	0.10	1	-0.00	6	83%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.01	9	47%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.00	7	71%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	5	33%	-0.01	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.4	26.6	17.4	24.1	1.6	35.6	135.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +32.0%

MIA +21.2%

MIA +7.0%

CHA -5.4%

CHA -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	16.6	14.8	15.5	112.0	121.7	105.7
season	16.2	16.0		102.3	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.3	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	17.1	17.1	15.5	16.7	16.6
MIA	14.2	15.6	14.5	14.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Garrett Temple	36	37	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.22	6	-15	21	16.6	16.5	0.09	15.1	14.5	0.64
Gerald Henderson	43	45	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-12	15	16.7	16.4	0.31	13.0	16.4	-3.34
DJ White	46	46	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.24	3	-12	15	16.6	16.5	0.15	14.8	14.7	0.11
Matt Carroll	31	32	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	-3	-3	15.8	17.0	-1.18	16.6	13.8	2.83
Dante Cunningham	57	57	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.06	-6	-3	-3	16.9	16.0	0.89	14.7	14.8	-0.13
Dominic McGuire	46	44	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-4	-1	16.1	17.0	-0.85	15.2	14.3	0.91
D.J. Augustin	56	55	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.02	-15	6	-21	16.5	16.6	-0.09	14.5	15.1	-0.64
Boris Diaw	65	64	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.02	-16	7	-23	16.7	16.1	0.63	15.0	14.1	0.98
Kwame Brown	80	80	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.23	-9	0	-9	16.6	16.4	0.16	14.5	16.6	-2.11

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	64	63	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.11	15	-6	21	15.0	14.2	0.82	16.3	17.0	-0.65
LeBron James	72	73	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.18	12	-3	15	14.7	14.7	0.00	16.2	18.0	-1.82
Mike Bibby	62	62	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.10	13	-4	17	15.0	14.3	0.62	16.2	17.3	-1.16
Chris Bosh	73	72	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	5	-1	14.3	16.3	-1.97	16.3	17.3	-0.95
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	36	36	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.06	12	-3	15	14.0	15.2	-1.28	16.1	16.8	-0.73
Joel Anthony	50	49	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.40	-9	18	-27	15.2	14.2	1.03	17.6	15.4	2.13
Mike Miller	37	38	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	8	-7	14.4	15.0	-0.53	17.2	16.1	1.12
James Jones	38	39	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	8	-7	15.0	14.6	0.43	16.0	17.0	-0.96
Mario Chalmers	28	28	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.13	-4	13	-17	15.0	14.6	0.41	18.1	15.9	2.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.78,0.78,0.88,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 84, CLE 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
CLE 89, HOU 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.87,0.78,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.87,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
NJN 75, MIL 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%