NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	90		Excitement	8.9 [124]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +40.9%
Chicago Bulls	89		Comeback	1.6 [719]		LVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): -24.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.38	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.38	0.05	0.34	0.01	12	53%	0.48	1	-0.10	8	87%	0.06
Kenyon Martin	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.09	-0.01	15	47%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	0.01	8	62%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.16,-0.16,0.05	-0.09	0.12	-0.01	22	43%	0.19	4	-0.14	3	100%	0.01
Ty Lawson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	6	67%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	69%	0.10	5	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.15	-0.09	-0.00	9	23%	-0.14	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.03,0.03,0.41	0.41	0.11	0.31	0.01	17	61%	0.41	0	0.00	2	100%	0.10
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	14	62%	0.14	3	-0.11	6	67%	-0.04
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.05	6	23%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	8	62%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	13	37%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	12	50%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	10	30%	-0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	29.2	14.8	26.0	1.8	36.8	135.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +22.9%

DEN +30.7%

DEN +7.7%

CHI -24.2%

DEN +12.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHI	NBA	DEN	CHI	NBA
this game	15.5	15.1	15.3	93.8	96.7	106.0
season	14.4	14.7		110.3	101.9
opponent	15.7	15.5		103.9	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.9	14.0	14.6	16.7	15.5
CHI	15.8	15.5	15.4	13.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	58	59	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.44	12	-11	23	14.9	16.4	-1.45	15.5	14.5	1.07
Chris Andersen	42	41	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.19	17	-16	33	14.5	16.3	-1.76	16.0	14.5	1.51
Ty Lawson	36	36	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.07	11	-10	21	14.9	15.8	-0.87	14.6	15.5	-0.83
Kenyon Martin	68	65	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.30	-2	3	-5	15.9	14.4	1.55	15.4	14.6	0.83
Carmelo Anthony	73	67	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.37	-6	7	-13	16.3	12.8	3.50	14.8	16.2	-1.40
Chauncey Billups	66	62	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.47	-10	11	-21	15.9	14.6	1.34	15.1	15.3	-0.19
Nene	82	77	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.49	-13	14	-27	15.6	14.7	0.91	14.6	17.8	-3.18
Arron Afflalo	38	36	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	0	1	15.1	15.8	-0.72	16.0	14.6	1.37
Anthony Carter	17	17	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	6	-11	14.4	15.7	-1.38	14.2	15.3	-1.11

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	54	56	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.32	16	-17	33	15.4	14.7	0.73	15.6	15.3	0.24
James Johnson	4	5	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.04	1	-2	3	19.7	14.9	4.82	11.4	15.7	-4.31
Luol Deng	73	78	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.39	10	-11	21	15.1	15.4	-0.35	16.2	12.3	3.88
Derrick Rose	75	78	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.58	12	-13	25	15.5	13.6	1.91	15.2	16.7	-1.52
Jannero Pargo	20	20	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.15	-13	12	-25	13.6	15.6	-1.91	14.3	15.8	-1.50
John Salmons	73	77	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.54	9	-10	19	15.1	15.4	-0.29	15.7	14.6	1.07
Joakim Noah	84	86	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.39	-1	0	-1	14.7	19.6	-4.91	15.8	12.9	2.89
Brad Miller	26	27	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	0.03	-24	23	-47	16.3	14.7	1.63	15.2	15.6	-0.42
Kirk Hinrich	51	53	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.36	-15	14	-29	14.8	15.5	-0.71	14.9	16.2	-1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.34,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.15,0.09,0.19,0.29,0.22,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 100, PHX 94	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.42,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.15,0.13,0.29,0.17,0.14,0.28,0.25,0.09,0	92.5%
MEM 99, SAC 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.06,0,0	91.9%
SAS 89, WAS 79	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.63,0.6,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.37,0.4,0.3,0.27,0.38,0.28,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.19,0.37,0.14,0.01,0	91.9%