NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	99		Excitement	6.4 [509]		MVP	Andrea Bargnani (TOR): +19.1%
Toronto Raptors	110		Comeback	2.3 [850]		LVP	Rodney Stuckey (DET): -18.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Bynum	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.00	0.13	-0.02	11	57%	0.22	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.00
Ben Gordon	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.18	-0.03	0.07	19	64%	0.08	0	0.00	9	89%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.08
Jonas Jerebko	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	100%	0.09	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	13	59%	0.07	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.02	0.01	5	60%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DaJuan Summers	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	6	42%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	12%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rodney Stuckey	-0.19	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	18	33%	-0.14	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.09	-0.02	16	59%	0.25	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.04
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.05	0.03	10	62%	0.16	1	-0.03	20	75%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.09	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.02	11	57%	0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.01
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.05	0.00	11	41%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	8	44%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	37.9	16.5	28.8	2.0	33.0	142.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +10.5%

TOR +29.6%

DET -4.5%

TOR +11.8%

TOR +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	TOR	NBA	DET	TOR	NBA
this game	17.2	14.9	15.3	110.0	123.6	106.0
season	16.8	15.0		104.0	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.2		111.5	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.1	17.0	18.3	15.7	17.2
TOR	14.6	11.8	16.0	17.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Maxiell	20	17	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.03	3	-14	17	15.9	17.6	-1.66	15.6	14.8	0.82
DaJuan Summers	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-13	15	7.0	17.4	-10.36	15.5	14.9	0.59
Jonas Jerebko	45	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	-5	-1	17.7	16.8	0.93	14.8	15.0	-0.24
Chris Wilcox	19	21	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-7	3	17.3	17.2	0.02	14.0	15.2	-1.27
Kwame Brown	8	10	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	-1	-9	20.0	17.0	3.02	14.2	15.0	-0.81
Rodney Stuckey	65	64	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.19	-1	-10	9	17.5	16.5	1.06	15.9	12.4	3.51
Austin Daye	33	32	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.04	-8	-3	-5	17.2	17.3	-0.10	14.4	15.2	-0.85
Ben Gordon	86	84	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.24	-3	-8	5	17.0	21.5	-4.45	15.0	12.8	2.25
Charlie Villanueva	55	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.07	-9	-2	-7	17.5	16.9	0.59	14.5	15.6	-1.16
Ben Wallace	54	52	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	-6	1	17.7	16.6	1.15	15.1	14.6	0.47
Will Bynum	64	63	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.14	-14	3	-17	16.5	19.0	-2.41	14.6	15.7	-1.14

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarrett Jack	59	60	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.08	17	-6	23	14.6	15.5	-0.92	16.5	18.7	-2.23
Andrea Bargnani	72	72	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.03	17	-6	23	15.1	14.2	0.85	17.8	14.9	2.94
Antoine Wright	33	34	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.00	12	-1	13	12.5	16.3	-3.78	16.8	17.5	-0.68
Jose Calderon	58	59	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	6	-1	15.6	13.7	1.86	17.0	17.7	-0.76
Chris Bosh	63	65	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.21	4	7	-3	15.3	14.1	1.19	17.2	17.4	-0.16
Hedo Turkoglu	66	68	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.20	3	8	-5	15.3	13.9	1.36	17.1	17.7	-0.58
Marco Belinelli	27	27	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.02	4	7	-3	15.1	14.8	0.27	17.4	17.2	0.18
Amir Johnson	33	31	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	9	-7	14.9	14.9	0.03	17.5	17.1	0.32
DeMar DeRozan	34	34	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.14	-9	20	-29	14.8	15.0	-0.16	18.3	16.6	1.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.89,0.84,0.8,0.88,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.84,0.87,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.74,0.82,0.76,0.58,0.47,0.59,0.73,0.9,0.95,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 80, CHI 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.79,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.81,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.88,0.76,0.63,0.47,0.59,0.86,0.93,0.89,0.97,0.92,1	94.6%
UTA 93, SEA 104	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.86,0.88,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.76,0.91,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.5%
NJN 92, LAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.5,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.65,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.73,0.93,0.97,0.86,0.96,1	92.4%