NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	80		Excitement	8.0 [218]		MVP	Will Bynum (DET): +16.0%
Detroit Pistons	85		Comeback	2.4 [209]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -50.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Barnes	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.00	9	58%	0.13	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	4	80%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
JJ Redick	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.01	0.02	12	52%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Vince Carter	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	16	47%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.05	3	-0.06	8	50%	-0.07
Marcin Gortat	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	7	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	-0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.22,-0.15,-0.23,-0.23,-0.27	-0.15	-0.15	-0.02	14	23%	-0.20	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.04
Jameer Nelson	-0.50	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.38,-0.5,-0.5	-0.15	-0.35	0.00	11	32%	-0.15	5	-0.34	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.16	0.16	0.03	0.11	-0.02	15	56%	0.25	2	-0.09	6	100%	0.07
Ben Gordon	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	10	74%	0.17	2	-0.04	11	100%	0.09
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	11	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.04
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	5	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.05
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.09	-0.19	0.00	20	42%	-0.20	3	-0.08	8	75%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.3	29.5	17.4	29.6	2.7	36.6	143.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -0.6%

DET +2.3%

DET +6.2%

DET +31.3%

DET +10.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	15.1	17.1	15.3	89.9	94.4	106.0
season	15.4	16.8		110.1	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.9		109.8	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.5	14.3	17.1	13.5	15.1
DET	18.8	17.0	16.4	16.5	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	30	30	0.21	-0.71	0.91	0.09	4	-9	13	13.8	15.7	-1.95	21.7	14.8	6.88
Jason Williams	27	28	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.15	2	-7	9	14.9	15.1	-0.19	17.6	16.9	0.72
Marcin Gortat	41	43	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.12	-4	-1	-3	16.5	13.8	2.70	16.4	17.8	-1.37
Vince Carter	55	57	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.01	-9	4	-13	14.4	16.1	-1.67	17.7	16.2	1.52
JJ Redick	74	75	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.24	-3	-2	-1	15.2	14.4	0.79	17.4	15.7	1.73
Matt Barnes	49	48	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.46	2	-7	9	15.6	14.4	1.15	16.0	18.4	-2.38
Jameer Nelson	62	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.21	-7	2	-9	15.1	14.9	0.19	16.9	17.6	-0.72
Brandon Bass	54	54	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.54	3	-8	11	15.4	14.5	0.99	16.0	18.8	-2.78
Ryan Anderson	53	53	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.14	-13	8	-21	14.3	16.2	-1.96	16.2	18.4	-2.15

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Stuckey	79	78	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.38	12	-7	19	16.9	18.8	-1.94	14.6	18.1	-3.46
Ben Gordon	80	80	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.25	15	-10	25	17.0	18.1	-1.11	15.1	14.6	0.56
Ben Wallace	53	52	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.17	11	-6	17	17.6	16.5	1.11	14.4	16.0	-1.62
Charlie Villanueva	55	55	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.17	10	-5	15	17.2	17.0	0.18	14.7	15.7	-1.00
Will Bynum	54	53	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.48	-4	9	-13	15.9	18.9	-2.96	14.9	15.3	-0.37
Jonas Jerebko	46	44	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.09	6	-1	7	18.2	16.0	2.13	16.0	14.1	1.96
Kwame Brown	42	42	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.24	-7	12	-19	16.5	17.6	-1.15	15.9	14.3	1.52
Chris Wilcox	30	29	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	9	-13	17.0	17.1	-0.12	15.8	14.7	1.14
Chucky Atkins	3	4	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.02	-6	11	-17	23.3	16.9	6.44	14.7	15.1	-0.32
Austin Daye	8	8	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.03	-8	13	-21	20.4	16.8	3.58	14.4	15.1	-0.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.3,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.32,0.34,0.44,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.67,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 88, MEM 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.4,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.48,0.77,0.96,1	92.0%
POR 82, NOH 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.81,0.64,0.53,0.67,0.61,0.78,0.55,0.95,1	91.1%
DAL 92, NOH 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.64,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.46,0.55,0.79,0.84,0.98,1	90.9%