NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	87		Excitement	8.0 [227]		MVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): +27.0%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	1.9 [655]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -33.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	7	62%	0.14	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.03
John Salmons	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.06	-0.02	0.03	-0.04	14	57%	0.12	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.13,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03	0.08	-0.05	-0.00	21	55%	0.07	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Brad Miller	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	10	50%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Tyrus Thomas	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	40%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Taj Gibson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	11	29%	-0.14	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick Rose	-0.34	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.27,-0.29,-0.34	-0.15	-0.18	-0.00	15	25%	-0.26	2	-0.08	2	0%	-0.05

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.27	0.27	0.10	0.17	-0.00	13	70%	0.30	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.11	-0.00	7	75%	0.20	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.08	-0.00	6	50%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.02	0.03	19	52%	0.09	4	-0.10	10	80%	-0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	6	53%	0.10	3	-0.13	3	67%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	5	79%	0.12	5	-0.22	4	100%	0.02
Michael Beasley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	12	34%	-0.07	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	27.2	16.5	30.7	2.0	35.2	136.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +66.9%

MIA +16.4%

CHI -2.5%

CHI -34.4%

MIA +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	14.1	16.9	15.3	92.6	103.3	106.0
season	14.7	16.2		101.9	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.7		102.8	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.1	14.1	13.8	15.6	14.1
MIA	18.5	15.9	15.6	17.9	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrus Thomas	44	42	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-9	10	14.4	13.9	0.50	15.9	17.7	-1.84
Taj Gibson	36	34	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	-3	-2	13.7	14.3	-0.61	16.1	17.3	-1.20
Jannero Pargo	11	11	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-4	0	15.5	13.9	1.54	17.5	16.8	0.63
Joakim Noah	57	55	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-9	10	14.7	13.1	1.63	17.8	15.6	2.19
Brad Miller	47	49	-0.34	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	0	-8	13.3	14.9	-1.64	16.4	17.4	-0.97
John Salmons	69	67	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-4	0	14.5	13.0	1.44	17.9	14.2	3.77
Luol Deng	71	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	-5	2	13.9	14.8	-0.91	17.0	16.7	0.28
Derrick Rose	72	68	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.21	-11	3	-14	14.0	14.3	-0.23	16.1	19.2	-3.18
Kirk Hinrich	63	65	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.32	-7	-1	-6	13.8	14.7	-0.87	17.2	16.2	0.96

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	66	67	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.22	15	-7	22	17.0	16.7	0.24	14.0	14.4	-0.44
Dwyane Wade	68	71	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.25	7	1	6	16.9	16.9	0.04	13.8	15.1	-1.37
Mario Chalmers	60	62	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.24	7	1	6	17.1	16.5	0.66	14.2	13.9	0.24
Quentin Richardson	51	53	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.25	5	3	2	16.3	17.6	-1.28	14.2	14.0	0.17
Joel Anthony	41	39	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	4	0	16.3	17.4	-1.01	12.9	15.0	-2.09
Jermaine O'Neal	51	55	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	4	0	17.4	16.3	1.01	15.0	12.9	2.09
Dorell Wright	31	31	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	8	-8	17.6	16.6	1.02	14.2	14.0	0.15
Carlos Arroyo	32	32	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	7	-6	16.5	17.1	-0.66	13.9	14.2	-0.24
Michael Beasley	60	60	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.01	-3	11	-14	16.9	16.8	0.14	14.5	13.4	1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.62,0.47,0.59,0.4,0.47,0.61,0.46,0.77,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 88, GSW 89	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.44,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.6,0.4,0.61,0.36,0.68,0.86,1	92.7%
PHX 104, DAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.34,0.38,0.54,0.68,0.73,1	92.7%
ORL 91, BOS 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.45,0.53,0.36,0.85,0.91,1	92.5%