NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	85		Excitement	5.7 [674]		MVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): +20.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	96		Comeback	7.3 [244]		LVP	Rodney Stuckey (DET): -12.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Wallace	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	80%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Charlie Villanueva	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	8	67%	0.09	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ben Gordon	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.04	0.00	15	67%	0.12	4	-0.08	9	100%	0.05
Jonas Jerebko	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	12	48%	0.04	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01
Jason Maxiell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Kwame Brown	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	0	0%	-0.02	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03
Will Bynum	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	12	38%	-0.09	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	-0.03	-0.05	19	33%	-0.08	4	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.04,0.07,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.10	0.09	-0.01	15	71%	0.27	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.02	0.06	-0.06	14	49%	0.12	3	-0.03	15	67%	-0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	5	73%	0.08	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	9	45%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Roko Leni Ukic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Kurt Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	3	62%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	35%	-0.01	1	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	7	36%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	30.7	16.8	27.4	2.6	35.3	139.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +24.2%

MIL +6.0%

MIL +9.9%

MIL +9.6%

MIL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	17.7	14.1	15.3	94.4	105.5	106.0
season	16.8	15.5		104.0	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.2		101.8	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.0	17.2	17.8	17.0	17.7
MIL	14.6	13.3	13.5	15.1	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	69	69	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.14	4	-15	19	17.7	17.7	0.07	15.1	11.1	4.00
Jonas Jerebko	12	12	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.07	-4	-7	3	17.6	17.7	-0.16	13.3	14.2	-0.91
Charlie Villanueva	44	46	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-9	7	18.4	17.1	1.34	13.9	14.4	-0.51
Kwame Brown	22	22	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.08	-5	-6	1	18.8	17.4	1.39	14.6	14.0	0.68
Will Bynum	40	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.12	-14	3	-17	16.2	19.0	-2.79	12.8	15.3	-2.48
Rodney Stuckey	83	82	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	-8	5	17.6	19.4	-1.85	14.5	10.3	4.20
Tayshaun Prince	74	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.22	-7	-4	-3	18.1	16.0	2.09	14.5	12.1	2.42
Jason Maxiell	35	34	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.12	-11	0	-11	17.9	17.6	0.31	12.9	14.8	-1.93
Ben Gordon	71	71	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.19	-13	2	-15	17.5	18.4	-0.89	13.8	15.4	-1.64

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hakim Warrick	62	63	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.04	17	-6	23	14.2	13.9	0.33	17.1	19.2	-2.14
Brandon Jennings	57	57	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.15	13	-2	15	14.9	12.8	2.17	19.0	15.5	3.44
Luc Mbah a Moute	53	53	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-4	19	14.3	13.9	0.39	17.4	18.2	-0.79
Michael Redd	45	44	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.14	9	2	7	13.9	14.4	-0.50	18.3	17.1	1.21
Andrew Bogut	47	49	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.26	3	8	-5	14.4	13.8	0.54	19.3	15.8	3.57
Ersan Ilyasova	37	36	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.17	13	-2	15	12.5	15.3	-2.80	18.0	17.6	0.42
Charlie Bell	47	47	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	7	-3	14.1	14.1	0.06	16.8	18.7	-1.91
Dan Gadzuric	27	23	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.17	-5	16	-21	15.6	13.5	2.04	14.9	18.7	-3.83
Roko Leni Ukic	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	11	-11	4.0	14.2	-10.23	8.0	17.8	-9.83
Carlos Delfino	38	37	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	15	-19	13.9	14.3	-0.39	18.2	17.4	0.79
Luke Ridnour	32	31	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	15	-19	13.3	14.6	-1.25	16.2	18.5	-2.28
Kurt Thomas	9	9	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.06	-6	17	-23	14.6	14.1	0.48	19.7	17.5	2.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.48,0.59,0.7,0.78,0.91,0.9,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.77,0.83,0.8,0.87,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 91, POR 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.39,0.45,0.59,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.94,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.9,0.97,0.99,1,1	93.4%
DAL 105, DEN 118	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.25,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.6%
NJN 93, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.78,0.9,0.98,0.97,0.98,1	92.4%