NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	95		Excitement	8.6 [168]		MVP	Roger Mason Jr. (SAS): +21.0%
Sacramento Kings	92		Comeback	7.0 [419]		LVP	Beno Udrih (SAC): -42.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roger Mason Jr.	0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.21,0.21	0.09	0.12	-0.00	19	56%	0.25	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,0.19	-0.05	0.23	-0.00	11	37%	0.22	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ime Udoka	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	6	79%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kurt Thomas	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	9	47%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	1	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	6	47%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Fabricio Oberto	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	23	50%	0.02	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.05
Drew Gooden	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.10	-0.06	0.01	9	33%	-0.13	2	-0.04	9	56%	-0.07

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donte Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.10	0.00	4	87%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	18	62%	0.16	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.02
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.00	3	80%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	7	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.05,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.04	-0.03	15	37%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.07	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.05	0.01	6	69%	0.04	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Francisco Garcia	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	12	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.29,-0.43	-0.43	-0.15	-0.29	-0.02	12	8%	-0.43	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.5	33.4	15.7	25.3	2.6	31.5	136.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +39.3%

SAS +3.0%

SAS +13.6%

SAC -4.9%

SAC -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SAC	NBA	SAS	SAC	NBA
this game	17.0	16.9	15.5	111.8	108.2	106.4
season	16.4	15.0		106.6	104.0
opponent	15.1	15.7		112.7	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.2	16.1	17.0	20.2	17.0
SAC	16.7	14.5	18.1	18.7	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	61	59	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.33	16	-13	29	17.6	15.3	2.29	17.6	15.2	2.41
Tony Parker	66	67	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.33	11	-8	19	17.7	14.6	3.09	16.7	17.5	-0.75
Roger Mason Jr.	60	60	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.59	-2	5	-7	17.2	16.4	0.82	17.0	16.7	0.32
Michael Finley	62	62	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.44	2	1	1	17.5	15.4	2.11	16.5	18.1	-1.68
Matt Bonner	59	59	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.46	1	2	-1	18.0	14.6	3.46	16.5	17.8	-1.30
Bruce Bowen	25	25	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	5	-7	15.1	17.7	-2.63	18.2	16.4	1.83
Ime Udoka	42	41	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.09	0	3	-3	15.8	18.1	-2.31	16.9	16.9	0.04
Drew Gooden	39	40	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.10	-1	4	-5	14.9	18.7	-3.79	17.5	16.3	1.22
Fabricio Oberto	11	12	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.09	-10	13	-23	15.0	17.3	-2.27	13.1	17.5	-4.45

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashad McCants	26	26	0.21	-0.71	0.93	-0.02	8	-11	19	13.9	18.2	-4.30	15.7	17.6	-1.91
Ike Diogu	27	28	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.09	7	-10	17	17.2	16.8	0.41	18.3	16.3	1.95
Donte Greene	30	29	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.11	7	-10	17	16.2	17.3	-1.09	18.3	16.3	2.02
Bobby Jackson	35	35	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.07	5	-8	13	16.9	16.9	-0.03	17.4	16.7	0.77
Spencer Hawes	72	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	1	-5	17.2	15.2	1.98	16.1	22.0	-5.93
Andres Nocioni	62	64	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.42	-3	0	-3	17.4	15.6	1.78	17.5	15.3	2.18
Beno Udrih	50	50	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.34	-8	5	-13	16.9	16.9	0.03	16.7	17.4	-0.77
Francisco Garcia	58	58	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.31	-14	11	-25	17.5	15.7	1.82	16.3	18.3	-1.99
Jason Thompson	65	63	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.34	-13	10	-23	17.0	16.6	0.40	17.4	15.8	1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.78,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.53,0.39,0.47,0.79,0.77,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 98, BOS 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.71,0.66,0.73,0.56,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.79,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.41,0.47,0.69,0.55,0.67,0.28,0	90.7%
MEM 91, DAL 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.77,0.73,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.65,0.59,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.74,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.4,0.53,0.55,0.72,0.68,0.58,0	90.7%
NYK 103, CHI 101	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.76,0.74,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.77,0.59,0.59,0.39,0.45,0.71,0.55,0.31,0	90.5%