NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	96		Excitement	8.3 [195]		MVP	Brandon Roy (POR): +38.0%
Memphis Grizzlies	93		Comeback	13.2 [136]		LVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): -31.2%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0.38	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.38	0.04	0.35	0.01	16	56%	0.46	3	-0.08	11	73%	0.03
Travis Outlaw	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.23	-0.01	0.24	-0.00	8	52%	0.37	2	-0.14	5	20%	-0.21
Rudy Fernandez	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	10	68%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Sergio Rodriguez	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.05	0.00	2	67%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Joel Przybilla	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	4	69%	0.09	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Greg Oden	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	8	62%	0.13	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.31	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.31	-0.05	-0.25	0.02	16	45%	-0.20	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.36	0.36	0.09	0.27	0.00	12	73%	0.41	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.23	0.23	0.19	0.07	0.02	21	74%	0.28	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.09	-0.01	9	50%	0.16	1	-0.06	8	87%	0.02
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	0	100%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Hamed Haddadi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.06	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,-0.07	-0.07	0.02	-0.10	-0.00	10	60%	0.18	2	-0.26	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.8	31.0	15.8	27.2	2.7	40.0	142.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM -14.9%

POR +16.3%

POR +43.8%

MEM -3.3%

POR +8.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MEM	NBA	POR	MEM	NBA
this game	16.0	17.3	15.5	111.6	106.9	106.4
season	16.7	16.1		111.0	101.7
opponent	15.3	16.0		107.6	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.1	16.5	15.9	15.6	16.0
MEM	15.2	15.6	20.1	18.7	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Oden	43	43	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.57	13	-10	23	14.8	17.3	-2.49	17.0	17.5	-0.55
Travis Outlaw	52	53	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.51	9	-6	15	15.2	17.3	-2.03	17.1	17.5	-0.41
LaMarcus Aldridge	73	73	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.47	3	0	3	15.8	17.2	-1.41	17.1	18.0	-0.89
Steve Blake	64	63	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.30	2	1	1	16.0	16.0	-0.01	16.7	18.7	-1.95
Brandon Roy	70	71	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.40	-4	7	-11	16.1	15.9	0.20	16.5	20.7	-4.29
Nicolas Batum	34	35	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.25	-1	4	-5	16.8	15.6	1.21	16.6	17.7	-1.09
Rudy Fernandez	30	31	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.12	4	-1	5	16.5	15.8	0.77	19.6	15.9	3.67
Sergio Rodriguez	21	22	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.11	-1	4	-5	16.8	15.8	0.96	19.9	16.4	3.56
Channing Frye	13	13	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.03	-9	12	-21	14.5	16.3	-1.76	12.4	18.1	-5.72
Joel Przybilla	30	31	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.24	-1	4	-5	18.5	14.7	3.73	19.7	15.9	3.77

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marko Jaric	18	19	0.26	-0.76	1.01	0.08	6	-9	15	18.7	16.9	1.78	18.4	15.4	3.06
Rudy Gay	68	67	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.15	4	-7	11	17.3	16.9	0.39	16.5	14.3	2.27
Darrell Arthur	34	33	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.14	-6	3	-9	16.3	17.8	-1.53	15.8	16.2	-0.35
Hamed Haddadi	21	19	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	2	-7	20.3	16.3	4.00	15.8	16.1	-0.32
Marc Gasol	55	57	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.41	4	-7	11	16.1	19.2	-3.01	16.7	14.8	1.87
Greg Buckner	27	28	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.24	-7	4	-11	17.9	17.0	0.87	15.4	16.3	-0.90
O.J. Mayo	78	77	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.45	-3	0	-3	17.1	18.2	-1.08	15.8	17.9	-2.07
Mike Conley	74	73	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.43	-5	2	-7	17.0	18.6	-1.60	15.6	18.7	-3.13
Hakim Warrick	60	57	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.54	-3	0	-3	17.4	17.0	0.42	15.4	17.2	-1.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.64,0.74,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.9,0.86,0.9,0.87,0.75,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.81,0.77,0.69,0.71,0.93,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 87, WAS 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.77,0.72,0.8,0.8,0.73,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.76,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.75,0.64,0.85,0.73,0	90.8%
DET 94, NYK 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.86,0.77,0.8,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.85,0.88,0.75,0.58,0.52,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.67,0.85,0	90.3%
DEN 99, MIN 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.53,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.69,0	90.0%